[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 33.8N 40.3W at 19/2100 UTC
or 690 nm WSW of the Azores moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 32N to 36N between 37W and 42W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 28W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is note from 05N to 12N between 24W and
29W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 65W from 16N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 62W and 69W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 83W from 20N
southward moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 80W
and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern
Senegal near 16N16W to 07N46W. The ITCZ continues from 07N46W to
06N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 12N between 20W and 23W, and from 08N to 13N between
30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters. Light to
gentle winds are found over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the forecast period
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay
of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds are found over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9
ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to
near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night, with seas building to
11 or 12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on TS Don,
located N of the area near 33.8N 40.3W.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, with the
exception of troughing to the south of TS Don. Fresh to strong
winds are noted N of Hispaniola, with gentle to moderate winds
generally prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in
northerly swell south of TS Don, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area will
weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front
moves across the southeastern United States. This will support
mainly moderate to locally fresh winds, except for fresh to strong
easterly winds and generally moderate seas just N of Hispaniola
through Thu night.

$$
AL
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