[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 33.9N 40.9W at 20/0300 UTC or
715 nm WSW of the Azores, and moving west at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near and north of the center from 33N to 35N between 38W
and 41W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 29W from 19N southward, and moving west around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N
between 26W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 15N southward
into northern Colombia, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No
significant convection is seen near this wave based on the latest
analysis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving
west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen at the Bay of Honduras, Yucatan Channel and
near the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Nouakchott, Mauritania
then extends southwestward through 11N30W to 07N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is found south of the trough from 07N to 12N
between the Gambia-Guinea coast and 25W. An ITCZ continues from
07N47W to near the Suriname coast. There is no significant
convection near the ITCZ based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A nighttime surface trough is causing scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough along
the Florida west coast is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over southwestern Florida and nearby
waters. A broad surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a
1021 mb high over the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are occurring at
the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present across the north-central and
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 3 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week.
This should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except fresh
to strong winds over the Bay of Campeche which will be enhanced
by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the
night hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent ESE trade winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and Hispaniola, and the
Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section at the
beginning for additional weather in the basin. Tight pressure
gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure at
northwestern Colombia is sustaining strong with locally near-
gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft at the south-central basin,
just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are present for the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft exist just north of Panama and
near western Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist across the
central basin through Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds with
very rough seas are expected near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Tropical Storm Don.

Convergent fresh ESE winds are generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south and southeast of Bermuda, north of
26N between 60W and 67W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at
3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 67W and the Georgia-Florida coast,
and north of 20N between 50W and 67W. At the central and eastern
Atlantic, surface ridging related to a 1026 mb Azores High is
maintaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas north of 20N
between 27W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh
NNE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate north of 22N between the
Africa coast and 67W. Across the tropical Atlantic, light to
gentle ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen from 07N to 20N
between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, and from 12N to 20N between
27W and 48W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE to
N winds 3 to 5 ft are found from 14N to 20N between 20W and 27W.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal
westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and
shift east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves
across the southeastern United States. This will support mainly
moderate to locally fresh winds, except for fresh to strong
easterly winds and generally moderate seas just north of
Hispaniola through Thu night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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