[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Don, at 19/1500 UTC, is near
33.9N 39.6W. Don is moving toward the WSW, or 255 degrees,
04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts
to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Tropical
storm force winds are within: 40 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of
12 feet or higher are within: 30 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The forecast for
the maximum sea height is 13 feet.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is also near the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 16N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, just
to the east of Nicaragua, from 20N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the tropical wave from eastern Honduras southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within
240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. The wave is along 96W/97W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N southward
between 94W and 98W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
northern Senegal near 16N16W, to 10N30W 10N40W 08N48W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N48W to 06N55W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from
50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 17N southward from 60W eastward, away
from the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb,
shows an inverted trough in mostly the SE part of the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 27N southward from 92W eastward. Scattered
strong is from 24N to 26N in the Bahamas between 77W
and 79W, near and in Andros Island.

A broad east-to-west oriented surface ridge passes
through the center of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast of
the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are reaching
3 feet from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Straits
of Florida. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the
east central and west central sections. The sea heights
are reaching 1 foot in the north central Gulf waters
between the Florida Panhandle and the Louisiana waters.
Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow is everywhere.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through the forecast
period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds,
except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be
enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One tropical wave is moving through the eastern one-third
of the area. A second tropical wave is moving through the
NW corner of the area. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES
section, for details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NE and north central sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 15N to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola between
65W and 72W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is moving
inland in the eastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula
and near Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from Belize to the northern parts
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, beyond
08N81W in Panama. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is related just to the monsoon
trough.

The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet between
73W and 77W. The sea heights in general range from 6 feet
to 9 feet between 67W and 81W. A value of 10 feet is off
the coast of Colombia along 76W/77W. The sea heights range:
from 3 feet to 4 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters from
east to west; to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward;
reaching 4 feet in the SW corner of the area; to 2 feet in
the Honduras coastal waters; from 3 feet to 4 feet in
the coastal waters of Cuba in the NW corner of the area.

Strong E winds are from 16N to 18N between 62W and 70W.
Strong E-to-NE winds are from Colombia to Jamaica between
70W and 80W. Mostly fresh E-to-NE winds cover much of
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC,
is: 0.43 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.24 in Bermuda,
0.09 in Trinidad, and 0.08 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Wed
through Thu during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about Tropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 33.9N 39.6W, at 19/1500 UTC.

Fresh SE winds are from 25N southward between 57W and
the Bahamas. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 26N between
19W and 30W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow
spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights range from: 3 feet to 5 feet north of 20N
from 20W westward. Near the Canary Islands: the sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 19N northward from 20W
eastward. IN the tropical Atlantic Ocean: the sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 12N to 19N between 31W
and 55W. Near and just to the east of the Lesser Antilles:
the sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 11N to 19N
between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands: the sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
from 11N to 19N between 20W and 31W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure over the area will weaken and shift
east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves
across the southeastern United States. This will support
mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except
for fresh to strong winds and generally moderate seas
just N of Hispaniola at night through Thu night.

$$
mt/gr
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