[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170405
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Don is centered near 39.4N 45.8W at
17/0300 UTC or 880 nm W of the Azores moving E at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection is displaced over the
eastern quadrant, extending up to 250 nm from the center. Don is
forecast to turn southeastward on Monday, southward on Tuesday, and
westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic. Little change in
strength is forecast over the next day or so, but Don may
intensify slightly and transition into a fully tropical system on
Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 13N and between 26W and 42W.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea. The trough axis is
along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few
showers are seen near the wave axis, affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are near the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to
09N46W. No other deep convection is noted in the monsoon trough
and ITCZ trough aside from the convection discussed in the
TROPICAL WAVES section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, evening storms that
formed over the northern Gulf coast and SW Florida are also
impacting the nearshore waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and
seas of 3-5 ft are affecting the waters of the Bay of Campeche,
especially south of 24N and east of 95W. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the
central Texas coast through mid week. A trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This
pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW
Colombia. Along with plenty of tropical moisture, this trough is
helping to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection across the SW Caribbean. Storm activity that formed
over eastern Cuba and Haiti during the afternoon and evening hours
have progressed towards the coast and are affecting the nearshore
waters.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure system north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures over northern South America
continue to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft
are occurring in the north-central Caribbean waters, including
the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5
ft prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through the period. These
winds will increase in areal coverage and extend to portions of
the SW basin as the waves move across these regions. Moderate to
fresh winds are forecast for the Gulf of Honduras through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Depression Don.

Divergence flow aloft is helping to generate a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic, especially north
of 26N and west of 63W. The remainder of the basin (west of 55W)
is under the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge
positioned near the Azores. Fresh easterly trade winds are noted
between the SE Bahamas and NE Cuba and northern Haiti, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Fresh to locally moderate northerly winds are found in the eastern
Atlantic, mainly east of 25W. Seas in the area described are 4-8
ft, with the highest seas occurring off Morocco. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure and ridging
will prevail across the forecast waters through Fri, supporting
mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong
winds and rough seas off Hispaniola at night.

$$
DELGADO
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