[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170944
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Don is centered near 39.2N 44.7W at
17/0900 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate convection is in
the Depression SE quadrant extending about 240 nm from the center.
Don is forecast to turn southeastward later today, southward on
Tuesday, and westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic. Don
could intensify slightly and transition into a fully tropical
system during the next day or two. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 36W,
from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 29W and 45W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean Sea with axis near 64W,
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are
ongoing in the NE Caribbean.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean Sea with axis near 79W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are
ongoing between the wave axis and the coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W SW to 12N28W to 11N45W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the TROPICAL WAVES
section, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N
to 15N between 12W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and seas of 3-5 ft associated with a surface trough are affecting
the waters of the Bay of Campeche, south of 23N and east of 95W.
Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak surface high pressure and ridging will
prevail through the forecast period supporting mainly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds. Otherwise, a trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore with
moderate to fresh winds continuing through the early morning
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW
Colombia. Two tropical waves moves across the basin and are
generating shower activity. See the TROPICAL WAVES section for
further details. Otherwise, surface high pressure N of the area
extending a ridge along the northern Caribbean, continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin where
seas range between 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Fri night. These
winds will increase in areal coverage and extend to portions of
the SW basin as two tropical waves move across these regions.
Moderate to fresh winds are forecast for the Gulf of Honduras
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Depression Don.

Divergence flow aloft is helping to generate a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic, especially north
of 26N and west of 63W. The remainder of the basin (west of 55W)
is under the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge
positioned near the Azores. Fresh easterly trade winds are noted
between the SE Bahamas and NE Cuba and northern Haiti, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Fresh to locally moderate northerly winds are found in the eastern
Atlantic, mainly east of 25W. Seas in the area described are 4-8
ft, with the highest seas occurring off Morocco. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure and ridging
will prevail across the forecast waters through Fri, supporting
mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong
winds and rough seas off Hispaniola at night.

$$
Ramos
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