[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Don is centered near 39.3N 47.0W at 16/2100
UTC or 940 nm W of the Azores moving E at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection has increased in aerial coverage
in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, and it is also closer
to the center. Don should turn southeastward on Monday, southward
on Tuesday, and southwestward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours, and
Don could degenerate into a remnant low during that time.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 31W, south of 17N, moving westward at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the
wave meets the ITCZ from 11N to 14N between 31W and 35W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is
along 59W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The
wave shows some inverted V pattern in the cloud field. Scattered
showers are noted ahead of the wave affecting the Lesser Antilles
mainly S of Guadeloupe. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are just
behind the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
75W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave
appears to enhance convection over the northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 12N28W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N33W 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 09N to 13N and between 31W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the
Gulf region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4
ft are noted over the SW Gulf while mainly light and variable
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft dominates the remainder of the basin.
A 150 nm wide band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms extends
from the NE Gulf across the N-central Gulf to about 23N94W. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Florida.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to
the central Texas coast through mid week. A trough will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This
pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central and SW Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds
based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5
to 7 ft are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere
in the basin, with the exception of 4 to 6 ft in the Windward
Passage.

Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are noted over most of
the central and NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are flared up over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean. An
upper level low located between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands combined
with local effects supports most of this convective activity. To
the south of the low, a diffluent pattern aloft is noted over the
SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong
winds across the south central Caribbean through the period. Winds
may reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Depression Don.

The western Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure
system located in the vicinity of Bermuda. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are across the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Moderate S to SW winds are evident per scatterometer
data N of the the NW Bahamas and E Florida along the western
periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker
winds prevail. Slight to moderate seas dominate the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the
waters N of 25N and W of 62W. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge anchored on a 1028 mb high pressure located NW of the
Azores near 41N34W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over W Africa supports fresh to strong winds
between the Canary Islands and near the coast of Morocco. Similar
wind speeds are also seen near the Mauritania and Western Sahara
border. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate the Atlantic
waters N of 18N and E of 40W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the
forecast waters, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas off Hispaniola.

$$
GR
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