[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Depression Don, at 16/1500 UTC, is
near 39.0N 48.1W. Don is moving toward the ENE, or 070 degrees,
07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher within 150 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are reaching 15 feet. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the
E semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the
latest Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 17N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east
of the tropical wave from 07N to 12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
360 nm to the north and northwest of the tropical wave, and
within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 19N
in Haiti southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N to 21N.
Isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 12N to 15N. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet
to 9 feet from Puerto Rico westward from the Greater Antilles
southward. A maximum value of 12 feet is off the coast of Colombia
between 76W/77W. Strong winds are from 17N southward from 66W
westward.

A tropical wave is along 92W, moving through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Mauritania and Senegal, to 13N25W. The ITCZ is along 12N31W
10N41W 07N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N to 14N between 30W and 40W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from
30W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
The GFS model shows that a 700 mb inverted trough is extending
from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the north central
sections of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 23N to 28N between 84W and 92W.

The GFS model shows that a trough is at 500 mb and at 700 mb,
in parts of the western Atlantic Ocean and on top of Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated strong, are in Florida from 27N northward between
80W and the Florida Panhandle.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet to the west of the
line that runs from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the NW coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 1 foot to
2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind speeds
span the area.

A ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the central Texas
coast through mid week. A trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will
maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving through the central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for
details about the precipitation, the wind speeds, and the sea
heights.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of
the area that is from 80W westward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Strong winds are from 17N southward from 66W westward. Fresh
winds are in the rest of the area that is from 18N southward from
63W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder
of Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 08N to 13N
between 77W and 86W, from parts of Panama to Costa Rica and
Nicaragua, and in parts of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and
the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the
central Caribbean through the period. Winds may reach near gale
force along the coast of Colombia tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about Subtropical Depression Don in the north central Atlantic
Ocean near 39.0N 48.1W, at 16/1500 UTC.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb 32N66W high pressure
center, to the NW Bahamas, to the northern coast of Mexico.
The GFS model shows that a trough is at 500 mb and at 700 mb,
in parts of the western Atlantic Ocean and on top of Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 55W eastward. The sea heights range from
6 feet to 10 feet from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 40W
eastward.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 60W
eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from
17N northward from 35W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are from
14N northward between 35W and 45W, and from 09N to 27N between
45W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 25N
northward from 73W westward, to the southeast of an inland U.S.A.
cold front. Gentle or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A ridge of high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters,
supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
off Hispaniola.

$$
mt/al
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