[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160949
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 38.6N 48.4W at 16/0900
UTC or 1010 nm W of the Azores, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt. Dry air has been wrapping
into Don, and therefore only a small area of scattered moderate
convection is evident within 90 nm in the eastern quadrant of the
storm. Seas in excess of 12 ft are likely within 150 nm in the
northern semicircle and southeast quadrant. Don is gradually
bending to the right and an eastward motion is expected later
today as high pressure builds over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to
the southeast is expected on Monday followed by a southward
motion as the ridge shifts westward and a trough becomes
established over the northeastern Atlantic. Don could stall or
loop around during the middle part of the weak as the steering
currents collapse. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
near this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. An earlier scatterometer satellite
pass showed moderate to fresh easterly winds within 120 nm on
both sides of the trough axis and from 14N to 21N. No significant
convection is noted near this tropical wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 10N35W to 10N45W. The
ITCZ is undefined at this time. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 08N to 11N and between 32W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche along a surface
trough that originated along the western coast of Yucatan
yesterday evening. A few showers and thunderstorms were evident
along this trough. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in this area.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the
central Texas coast, supporting light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3
ft seas, except for moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the
west- central Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to
the central Texas coast through mid week, while a trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore.
This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north
and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent ship observations and 02 UTC scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean, mainly ahead of the tropical wave between the
Dominican Republic and western Venezuela. A concurrent altimeter
satellite pass indicated combined seas are 8 to 12 ft in this
area. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely
ongoing in the Windward Passage ahead of the tropical wave.
Similar conditions are also likely over the Gulf of Honduras,
following the westward passage of a tropical wave yesterday
evening. Elsewhere moderate winds and seas are noted. Convergence
of the trade winds along with abundant moisture are supporting
numerous moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms in
a line from eastern Panama to central Nicaragua. A few showers
and thunderstorm are also evident off the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently between the
Dominican Republic and western Venezuela will weaken as it moves
across the central Caribbean today and across the western
Caribbean late Mon. A third tropical wave will move into the
eastern Caribbean late today or tonight, then move across the
remainder of the basin through mid week. The passage of the
tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly
the central Caribbean through the period. Winds may reach near
gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Storm Don.

An expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical
Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The only
convection outside of the deep tropics is seen between the
northern Bahamas and Bermuda associated with divergence aloft.
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are
present south of 22N and west of 65W. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are found off NE Florida, along with seas 3-4 ft. Elsewhere
west of 55W, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5
ft prevail.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1027 mb high pressure system centered
near the Azores supports fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds north
of 18N and east of 40W. The strongest winds are occurring off
Morocco, Western Sahara and in the water passages between the
Canary Islands. Seas in the region described are 6-9 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will persist
east of the Bahamas along 25N through tonight, supporting pulses
of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola.
The ridge will shift northward Mon ahead of a tropical wave that
will be approaching the area from the east. The northern portion
of the tropical wave will move westward south of 22N through Tue.

$$
Christensen
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