[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 38.2N 48.7W at 16/0300 UTC
or 1020 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
extends up to 175 nm from the center over the eastern quadrant.
Tropical storm-force winds extend within 150 nm NE and 80 nm SE
quadrants of center. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within
180 nm NE, 150 nm SE, and 180 nm NW quadrants of the center of
Don. On the forecast track, Don should turn toward the east on
Sunday, southeast on Monday and toward the south by Tuesday.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days,
and Don could become a remnant low pressure area in a few days.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are near the wave
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
showed fresh to locally strong easterly winds within 120 nm on
both sides of the trough axis and from 14N to 21N. Satellite
imagery shows a large amplitude wave but it is only producing
isolated showers due to a large Saharan airmass.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are near the
wave axis.

The tropical wave previously located over the western Caribbean
Sea has moved into the eastern Pacific basin. For information on
this wave, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to 18N25W to 10N38W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N38W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 12N and between 29W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche associated to the
storm activity that developed over the Yucatan Peninsula in the
afternoon and evening hours. Isolated showers are also evident
over the NE Gulf of Mexico waters due to a weak surface trough.
The remainder of the basin is under the western periphery of a
weak subtropical ridge positioned south of Bermuda.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring
in the Bay of Campeche. However, stronger winds are likely near
the strong storms in the region. Moderate return flow (southerly
winds) are found in the western Gulf, mainly west of 93W. Seas in
these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, light to gentle
winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the
central Texas coast through mid week, while a trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds
pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW
Colombia. Along with plenty of tropical moisture, this trough is
helping to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection across the SW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure system north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures over northern South America
continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest
winds occurring within 90 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters
are 8-12 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of
5-8 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean waters, including
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas
of 4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean
through late Sun and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A
another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean from
late Sun, then move across the remainder of the basin through mid
week. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to
strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the
period. Winds may reach near gale force along the coast of
Colombia tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Storm Don.

An expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical
Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The only
convection outside of the deep tropics is seen around 28N67W
associated with divergence aloft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present south of 22N and west of 65W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found off NE Florida, along
with seas 3-4 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure system centered
near the Azores supports fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds north
of 18N and east of 40W. The strongest winds are occurring off
Morocco, Western Sahara and in the water passages between the
Canary Islands. Seas in the region described are 6-9 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist east of
the Bahamas along 25N through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge will
shift northward into Mon ahead of a tropical wave that will be
approaching the area from the east. The northern portion of the
tropical wave will move westward south of 22N through Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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