[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 160240
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don continues to sporadically produce bursts of convection and cling
to subtropical cyclone status.  The storm currently consists of an
exposed low-level center with a limited area of thunderstorms in the
eastern portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity remains
at 35 kt based on recent data from a scatterometer overpass
(ASCAT-C).

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are generally not conducive for
development.  Sea surface temperatures are between 23-24 degrees
Celsius along the forecast track for the next few days. Dry
mid-level humidities from subsiding air are also expected to be
quite low.  However, isolated convection driven by cool upper-level
temperatures could still continue for the next several days
preventing Don from becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  There is also
a chance the storm could slightly re-strengthen in the long-term
forecast when it moves southward.  The official forecast is
unchanged from the the previous prediction.

The storm is moving northward at about 9 kt.  The reasoning behind
the track forecast has also not changed.  A strong subtropical ridge
is expected to steer Don eastward by late tomorrow and southward on
Tuesday.  In the 4-5 day forecast period, Don will be in a region
with weak steering currents and likely linger in the same general
area.  The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the last
advisory forecast and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 38.2N  48.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 39.1N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 39.7N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 39.3N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 38.2N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 36.6N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 35.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 33.5N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 34.2N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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