[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 152044
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don has a poor appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with only
weak banding noted on the southeastern side of the circulation,
mostly removed from the center, and only moderate convection.  With
the overall degradation in the satellite presentation, the current
wind speed is lowered slightly to 35 kt, consistent with the latest
TAFB classification.

The environment near Don is pretty harsh during the next few days,
with waters of 23-24C, dry air aloft, and bouts of shear.  While
this should be counteracted by cool upper-level conditions, which
promote deep convection over lower sea-surface temperatures than
typical, most factors suggest some weakening next week.  Thus the
latest forecast of Don is decreased from the previous one, leaning
closer to the global model solutions that generally show the system
becoming a depression in a day or so.  While there's a chance of
re-strengthening at long range, it is probably just as likely that
the system will degenerate into a remnant low before that point.

Don continues wobbling, but appears to have started its northward
motion at about 8 kt.  The storm should turn eastward by late
tomorrow and southward on Tuesday while it moves around the
northern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge.  Don will probably
enter a weaker steering flow near midweek, with little net motion
expected for a day or so.  Only minor eastward adjustments were
required to the NHC track forecast at long range as much of the
guidance come in close to the previous prediction. For such an
unusual July track, the guidance is in fairly good agreement, and
the NHC track is just west of the model consensus by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 37.3N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 38.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 39.3N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 39.4N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 38.6N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 37.1N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 35.4N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 33.2N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 33.5N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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