[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 151450
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

While the low-level circulation of Don remains robust, any
associated convection is weaker than overnight and farther from the
center.  Satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much, so the
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, though this feels a little
generous.  Unfortunately, the morning scatterometer passes missed
the center.

Don has wobbled northwestward overnight, at about 8 kt.  The storm
should turn northward later today and then eastward by late tomorrow
while it moves around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge.
The biggest change to the forecast of Don is that the track guidance
has shifted northward in the first few days of the forecast period.
The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, with little change in
the longer range as Don moves southward around the east side of the
strong ridge.

The storm should remain in a marginal environment during the next
few days with cool SSTs and dry air lurking, causing the system to
keep about the same strength or gradually decay.  With the northward
forecast change, taking Don across cooler waters, it is possible
that Don could weaken into a depression or a remnant low in a
couple of days.  Some re-intensification is possible at long
range when Don moves over warmer waters, though the uncertainty is
high.  No big changes were made to the previous forecast, but it
wouldn't be surprising if downward adjustments were necessary in
the afternoon forecast package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 36.5N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 37.8N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 39.1N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 39.5N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 39.3N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 38.4N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 36.8N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 33.9N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 33.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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