[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 160836
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 AM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

Don is barely a subtropical storm.  As mentioned in the previous
discussion, the ASCAT-C pass from around 00Z showed peak winds near
35 kt in a small area about 60 n mi east-northeast of the center.
Deep convection is limited to the same region where the strongest
winds were observed.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates that range from 25 to 45 kt.

The storm is currently over cool 24 degree C waters and the sea
surface temperatures along the expected track over the next day or
two are about a degree lower.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with dry air that continues to wrap into the circulation
should cause Don to remain poorly organized.  If the storm does
manage to survive beyond 48-72 hours, the water temperatures are
expected to increase a little along the forecast track, which could
cause some increase in thunderstorm activity.  Nonetheless,
significant strengthening is not expected due to continued dry air
entrainment and an increase in wind shear.  The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Don remaining a
weak system through the forecast period.  However, even though not
explicitly forecast, it would not be surprising if Don becomes a
remnant low at some point in the next couple of days.

Don is gradually bending to the right and an eastward motion is
expected later today as high pressure builds over the eastern
Atlantic.  A turn to the southeast is expected on Monday followed by
a southward motion as the ridge shifts westward and a trough becomes
established over the northeastern Atlantic.  Don could stall or loop
around during the middle part of the weak as the steering currents
collapse.  The model guidance has not changed much, and the NHC
track forecast generally follows the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 38.6N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 39.3N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 39.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 38.6N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 37.2N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 35.8N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 34.3N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 32.8N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 33.6N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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