[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic, currently
extending along a line 16N29W to 02N32W, moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N
between 28W and 32W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 16N to
02N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 43W and 46W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from
21N66W to 08N71W, moving west at near 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed on both sides of the wave from 16N to 20N
between 66W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Banjul, Senegal near
14N17W to 10N38W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N38W to
11N44W and from 10N47W to 07N57W. In addition to the convection
described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed along the eastern segment
of the ITCZ just off the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the
southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from
the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and
slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters while a trough will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For details about convection in the Caribbean Sea, please see the
Tropical Wave section above.

The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical
wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate
to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft
throughout the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern
Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through Thu
and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will
move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the SE Caribbean Sat,
the south-central Caribbean Sun, and the western Caribbean Mon.
The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections
for convection in the tropical Atlantic.

A stationary decaying frontal boundary extends off the Florida
coast from 31N72W to 27N79W. Most of the convection associated
with this front has dissipated North of the front, winds are
gentle from the W-NW. South of the front, winds are gentle from
the SW. Seas are generally 1-3 ft on either side. Invest area AL94
is located near 32N51W about 700 miles east of Bermuda with a
medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
While this system is north of the discussion area, fresh to
strong S to SW winds and moderate convection are observed north of
26N between 42W and 50W. Otherwise across the western and central
basin, the subtropical ridge extends westward along 25/26N. Winds
are gentle near the ridge axis. North of the ridge, winds are
gentle from the west. South of the ridge, winds are moderate from
the east. Seas are 3-6 ft across this area. In the eastern
Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. Similar
conditions extend into the central Atlantic south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak stationary front
between Bermuda and northeast Florida will dissipate through early
Thu morning. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave
will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri.
Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N
both ahead of and following the tropical wave. Looking ahead, the
ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of another
tropical wave approaching the area from the east.

$$
KRV
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