[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130917
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic, currently
extending along a line 16N30W to 03N34W, moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N
between 31W and 33W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46W from 16N to
02N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 43W and 45W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends from eastern Dominican Republic
to the Guajira peninsula of northeast Colombia, moving west at
near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the
Hispaniola coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N35W to 11N40W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 11N40W to
11N45W, and from 11N47W to 09N58W. In addition to the convection
described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 21W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving westward across the Bay of Campeche
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the
southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from
the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and
slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters, through early next week, while a trough
will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds
pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For details about convection in the Caribbean Sea, please see the
Tropical Wave section above.

The tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean is
disrupting the standard gradient there a little bit. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass shows moderate to fresh trade winds
for the most part over the Caribbean outside of the northwest
Caribbean, instead of the fresh to strong winds that are typical.
Pockets of strong winds may be active along the higher terrain of
Venezuela, Colombia and off Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Fresh
to strong NE winds may be lingering ahead of the tropical wave
over the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in these areas.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted in the
lee of central Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle breezes and 2
to 4 ft persist elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean.

The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate
to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft
throughout the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean
will move westward to the central Caribbean through today and
the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will
move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the SE Caribbean
Sat, the south-central Caribbean Sun, and the western Caribbean
Mon. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to
strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections
for convection in the tropical Atlantic.

A few isolated thunderstorms are all that remains of a stationary
front that recently dissipated between Bermuda and northeast
Florida. Weak ridging persists along roughly 25N/26N west of 55W
and east of the northern Bahamas. The northern portion of a
tropical wave is currently moving across the Dominican Republic.
Associated showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 22N west
of 65W, with fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola with seas
possibly reaching 8 ft. Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted
north of 22N and west of 55W. Farther east, a trough extends from
developing low pressure north of the area near 32N49W to 24N52W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within
90 nm of the trough north of 29N. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong southerly winds east of
the trough. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from east of the Azores to
24N55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are south of the ridge,
with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for higher winds and seas off
northwest Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas
through Sun. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave
will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri.
Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N
both ahead of and following the tropical wave. Looking ahead, the
ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of another
tropical wave approaching the area from the east.


$$
Christensen
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