[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122239
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, currently
extending along 25W from 20N to 07N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N between
22W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W from 16N to
01N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 37W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from
20N64W to 11N68W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed mainly west of the wave from 14N to 21N
between 63W and 73W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 89W, south of
19N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed mostly inland.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N30W to 09N40W
and from 08N48W to 06N57W. In addition to the convection described
in the tropical wave section, scattered weak convection is
observed along the western segment of the ITCZ from 06N to 12N
between 48W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the
southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from
the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and
slight seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to
fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical
wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate
to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft
throughout the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern
Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through Thu
and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will
move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the SE Caribbean Sat
and into the south-central Caribbean Sun. The passage of the
tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly
the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends off the Florida coast from 31N71W to
27N79W. Most of the convection associated with this front has
subsided. North of the front, winds are gentle from the W-NW.
South of the front, winds are moderate from the SW. Seas are
generally 3-5 ft on either side. Invest area AL94 is located near
34N52W, with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the
next 48 hours. While this system is north of the discussion area,
fresh to strong S winds and weak convection are observed north of
25N between 44W and 54W. Otherwise across the western and central
basin, the subtropical ridge extends westward along 25/26N. Winds
are gentle near the ridge axis. North of the ridge, winds are
moderate to fresh from the west. South of the ridge, winds are
moderate to fresh from the east. Seas are 4-5 ft along the ridge
axis, and 5-7 ft on either side. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds
are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. Similar conditions extend
into the central Atlantic south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist NE of
the Bahamas through Sun. A weak stationary front extending from
31N70W to 27N79W will continue to weaken between NE Florida and
Bermuda this evening and dissipate late tonight into Thu morning.
Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move
westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both ahead of
and following the tropical wave.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net