[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 30W south of 19N, moving west at
around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time.

A tropical wave extends along 53W from 19N to 10N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen at this time.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is along 65W south of
21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
east of the wave axis, from 16N to 20N between 57W and 63W. Recent
scatterometer data showed moderate to strong winds in the
vicinity of this convection. Additional showers and tstorms are
noted across the Windward and Leeward Islands. The 1200 UTC
Sounding from Saint Martin captured the abundant moisture and
instability in the lee of the tropical wave.

Another tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward into the
East Pacific, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N west of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 10N33W. The ITCZ continues from 10N33W to the coast of Brazil
near 04N51W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging prevails across the Gulf waters. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the NE Gulf, from 27N to 29N west of 87W.
Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow around a ridge axis
that extends through the Florida Straits prevails with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the basin.
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information on the
tropical waves and convection across the basin.

Fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, where seas are 6-7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail in the remainder of the basin, with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, a tropical wave in the E Caribbean will support
moderate to fresh winds in this region through Sun morning when
the wave will move to the central basin, increasing the areal
coverage of fresh to strong winds in the area through Tue when the
wave is forecast to reach the SW Caribbean waters. A new tropical
wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night into Wed morning,
increasing the winds to fresh speeds across the E Caribbean
through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will reach strong speed every night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Unsettled weather is the NW Waters, where scattered moderate
convection is north of 27N between 66W and 77W. Elsewhere, the
subtropical ridge centered near the Azores continues to dominate
the tropical Atlantic, as does a broad area of dry and dusty
Saharan Air Layer in the deep tropics south of 20N. Moderate to
fresh trades persist south of 20N with 6-8 ft seas, and gentle to
locally moderate trades persist north of 20N with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will prevail across
the SW N Atlantic waters through late Tue when the ridge will
weaken as an area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas
lift NE to the mid- Atlantic adjacent waters. The pressure
gradient between these two features will maintain moderate to
fresh SW winds north of 27N, and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong speeds north of
Hispaniola. Light winds are forecast elsewhere along the ridge.

$$
Mahoney
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