[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 26W/27W south of 19N, moving west
at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this
time.

A tropical wave extends along 49W from 19N to 09N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen at this time.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is
along 63W/64W south of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis
affecting the Lesser Antilles and regional waters as well as the
eastern Caribbean. The wave appears to enhance some convective
activity over eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this
wave will spread over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today
increasing the likelihood of rain. The wave is forecast to move
across Hispaniola on Sun.

Another tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward into the
EPAC region, moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh SE
winds follow the wave based on recent scatterometer pass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 12N26W to 09N38W. The ITCZ continues from 09N38W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 44W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough is over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. This trough usually develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours and moves westward.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity is near the trough axis.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the
northern Gulf. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of
gentle to moderate NW winds over the NE Gulf, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Light and variable
winds prevail over the SE Gulf, where a weak high pressure center
is forecast to persist over the next 48-72 hours. Seas are
generally 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf, with highest seas near
the trough axis, and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to
fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the basin.
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. Aside
for the convection related to the tropical waves, numerous showers
and thunderstorms are affecting much of the coast of Nicaragua.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are observed elsewhere based on satellite derived wind data
data, except in the SW Caribbean S of 12N, and in the lee of Cuba
where winds are mainly light. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 5 to 7
ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight,
Sun night, and again on Tue night. Generally moderate winds and
seas will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1026 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates
the Atlantic forecast waters. The associated ridge extends westward
toward the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are between
the western periphery of the ridge and a broad area of low pressure
off the SE of United States affecting the waters N of 27N between
70W and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within this area of winds. Fresh
to strong winds are just N of Hispaniola to about 21N between 70W
and 73W. Similar wind speeds and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range are
between the aforementioned high pressure and the W coast of Africa,
particularly from 20N to 24N E of 23W, and between the high pressure
and ahead of the tropical wave with axis along 26W/27W, mainly
from 15N to 21N between 28W and 35W. Gentle to moderate winds are
seen elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas of 4 to
6 ft, except 3 to 4 ft N of 20N and W of 42W.

An upper-level low spinning near 24N57W combined with the tropical
wave over the eastern Caribbean supports an area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms near and to the NE of the Leeward Islands.
This convective activity currently covers the waters from 15N to
21N between 52W and 62W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Weak ridge will persist along 25N,
south of a trough that will persist off the Carolina and Georgia
coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds north
of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N, occasionally
pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next week. Light
winds will persist along the ridge axis.

$$
GR
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