[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 19N to
06N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 19N to
09N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

A tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean extends along
60/61W from 19N to 06N, moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is observed east of the wave axis from 09N
to 21N between 54W and 61W. Scattered strong convection is seen
ahead of the wave across much of northeastern Venezuela.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 21N
southward into the tropical Pacific, moving west at 5-10 kt.
Isolated moderate convection is observed throughout much of the
NW Caribbean, with numerous moderate convection over western
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 05N53W. No deep
convection is observed over the Atlantic at this time, however a
westward moving line of thunderstorms is approaching the coast
of Senegal and Mauritania.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high-pressure ridge from the Atlantic continues to dominate
the pattern. A surface trough along Florida is supporting
coastal thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. Another trough near the
Yucatan Peninsula is supporting scattered moderate convection in
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise widely isolated
thunderstorms are observed throughout the majority of the basin.
In the SW Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE-S with 3-
5 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf with 1-2
ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a daily trough
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over
the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on
convection and tropical waves.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting mainly fresh trade
winds across the basin, including the Windward and Mona
Passages. Locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras, Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast near Barranquilla,
Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
pulse across the central Caribbean through early next week.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Sun night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A subtropical ridge persists across the western Atlantic,
disrupted by a weak 1018 mb low pressure center near 28N58W.
Isolated weak convection is observed west of 63W and north of
25N. Winds in this area are moderate to fresh from the SW with 3-
6 ft seas. In the western Atlantic south of the ridge axis along
25N, winds shift to moderate to fresh easterlies. An area of
gentle winds and slight seas is noted near the ridge weakness in
the west-central subtropical Atlantic. The remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic is influenced by the gradient
between a 1027 mb high pressure and lower pressure in the deep
tropics and NW Africa. North of 25N, winds are moderate with 4-6
ft seas. South of 25N, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will persist along
25N, south of a trough that will persist off the Carolina and
Georgia coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW
winds north of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N,
occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next
week. Light winds will persist elsewhere.

$$
Flynn
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