[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W/32W
from 06N to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are west to 40W and from 10N to 14N
between

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W from
from 09N to 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 14N between the wave and
60W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N64W to 15N66W
and to inland Venezuela to 06N67W. It is moving westward around
16 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis to
the Leeward Islands, with the exception of numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are occurring from 17N to 20N between 64W-67W.
This includes Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Expect for this
activity to linger into Sun morning as moisture remains at quite
high levels in the eastern Caribbean. This activity may be
attendant by strong gusty winds. An ASCAT data pass from this
afternoon revealed moderate to strong east winds northeast of the
Leeward Islands from 16N to 19N between 56W-59W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 10N to 15N
between 60W-65W.

A tropical wave is just along the coasts of Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. It reaches southward to the eastern Pacific
near 05N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection over the interior portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and
the western section of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
18N16W to 13N24W and to 10N34W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
08N40W and to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-38W, and also N of the
ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 13N34W to 11N39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge axis that extends from the Atlantic
across the Straits of Florida has changed little. Its associated
gradient is allowing for generally gentle to locally moderate
anticyclonic flow over the basin. Seas are in the range of
2-4 ft seas, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft in the
central, west-central and eastern Bay of Campeche areas.
Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough,
is roughly within 30 nm of a line extends from south-central
Florida westward to 26N85W and northwest to 27N89W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over the north-central waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Florida
panhandle as well as over northern and central Florida. Similar
activity approaching the coast is over Alabama and in the
interior sections of Mississippi, Louisiana and of NE Texas.

For the forecast, the anticyclonic flow pattern attributed to
the weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf region while
a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh
winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with active weather is in the eastern Caribbean.
Another tropical wave is just along the coasts of Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for
information on these features and associated convection.

Fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail in the remainder of the basin, with 3-6 ft seas.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 14N to 21N between
77W-84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central
and western sections of Jamaica. Similar activity is over western
Cuba.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the E Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh winds in this region through Sun
morning. The wave will move to the central basin Sun morning,
increasing the areal coverage of fresh to strong winds in the
area through Tue. The wave is forecast to reach the southwestern
Caribbean waters late Tue. A new tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles Tue night into Wed morning, increasing the winds
to fresh speeds across the E Caribbean through Wed night.
Otherwise, fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will reach
strong speed every night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough that extends from the eastern U.S. to
along the Florida coast is helping to sustain unsettled weather
in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the waters northwest of a line from 31N69W to 27N75W and to
Miami, Florida. A Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is
identified on water vapor imagery to be near 24N55W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 26N to 31N between
49W-69W. An area of overcast multilayer clouds is northeast
through southwest of this feature from 14N to 20N between
55W-64W, and from 20N to 29N between 49W and 55W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible underneath these
area of cloudiness.

Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge centered near the Azores
continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, as does a broad area
of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the deep tropics
south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of 20N
along with seas of 6-8 ft, and gentle to locally moderate trades
persist north of 20N with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging will continue
across the southwest N Atlantic waters through late Tue when the
ridge will weaken as an area of low pressure off the coast of
the Carolinas lift NE to the mid-Atlantic adjacent waters. The
pressure gradient between these two features will maintain
moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 27N, and moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong
speeds north of Hispaniola. Light winds are forecast elsewhere
along the ridge.

$$
Aguirre
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