[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from just southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 06N to 13N
between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N
southwestward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 12N between 41W
and 49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Haiti to the
Venezuela-Colombia border, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm on both sides of the wave axis
from Hispaniola to Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
and curves southwestward to 11N28W. Scattered moderate convection
is found south of the trough from 08N to 12N between Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 17W. An ITCZ continues from 11N28W across
10N36W to 07N43W, then resumes from 06N46W to near the French
Guiana-Brazil border at 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection
extends 150 nm on either side of the eastern ITCZ segment, with
convection near the western segment primarily associated with the
tropical wave depicted in the section above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 10N is
causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters
near northwestern Colombia and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough that extends from 27N94W to 21N96W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N between 90W and
96W. The northern tip of an eastern Pacific tropical wave extends
into the Bay of Campeche, where scattered moderate convection is
occurring. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high centered offshore western
Florida is dominating much of the region. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present at the eastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE return
flow and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the trough over the western Gulf will move NW
and inland today, taking scattered showers and thunderstorms and
fresh SE winds with it. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure
will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection just S of Cuba has dissipated early this morning.
Ongoing convection in the central and SW basin are due to the
monsoon trough and a tropical wave, both describe in above
sections. Fresh to strong mainly E trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft
are evident near the tropical wave at the central basin. Moderate
to fresh ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the eastern
basin. Moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
for the southwestern basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with
locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
move west across the western Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly
across the central Caribbean, along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge near
Hispaniola and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Hence, the lack of
tropical wave activity in the central Atlantic. Hazy conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this area
for the next couple of days.

Deep layer low pressure S of Bermuda near 27N65W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 55W and
70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for details on additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb Azores High
centered near 35N42W across Bermuda to the Florida Peninsula. This
ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
N of 23N, except in the far E Atlantic in the vicinity of and
south of the Canary Islands, where fresh NE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail. To the S of the main influence of the ridge,
moderate to fresh trades dominate, except for waters near and S of
the Cabo Verde Islands, where gentle and variable winds prevail.
Seas S of 23N are 4 to 7 ft, highest just E of the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak Bermuda to Azores High will
maintain a weak pressure gradient and lead to light gentle winds
across most of the area through late week. S of 22N, moderate to
fresh winds will prevail into Fri, occurring with and behind a
tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the
high pressure will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak
troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun.

$$
KONARIK
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