[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 16N southward, and
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
between 10N to 14N between 29W and 33W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 17N southwestward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 01N to 11N between 43W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Haiti to the
Venezuela-Colombia border, moving W at near 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 90 nm on both sides of the
wave axis from Hispaniola to Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
south of Dakar and curves southwestward to 13N30W. No significant
convection is depicted in association with the Monsoon Trough.
The ITCZ continues from 13N32W across 14N39W to 13N45W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection extends 150 nm on both
sides of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 10N is
causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters
near northwestern Colombia and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough that extends from 26N94W to 21N96W is inducing
a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection from 21N to
26N between 93W and 97W. Recent altimeter imagery depicted seas
up to 6 ft in this area convection. The northern tip of an eastern
Pacific tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche, where
scattered moderate convection is occurring. Otherwise, a 1019 mb
high centered offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating the
sensible weather across the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 2 ft are present at the eastern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE return flow
and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, outside of
convection.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough over the western Gulf
will move NW and inland by this evening, taking scattered showers
and thunderstorms and fresh to locally strong SE winds with it.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves
offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will support gentle to
moderate breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate convection is seen S of western Cuba in association with
an upper level trough. Other areas of convection are seen in the
central and SW basin and are due to the Monsoon Trough and a
Tropical Wave. Please see the Tropical Wave and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for more details. Fresh to strong mainly E
trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident near the tropical wave at
the central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate ENE to E trades and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted for the southwestern basin and the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and
2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
move west across the western Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly
across the central Caribbean, along with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Another tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Fri night.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge near
Hispaniola and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Hazy conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this area
for the next couple of days.

Deep layer low pressure S of Bermuda near 29N60W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N between 48W and
60W. Another area of scattered convection is seen about 160 nm NNE
of the Bahamas. This area of convection is associated with low
level convergence. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections above for details on additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb Azores High
centered near 39N39W across Bermuda to the NE Bahamas. This
ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
N of 23N, except in the far E Atlantic in the vicinity of and
south of the Canary Islands, where fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft prevail. To the S of the main influence of the ridge,
moderate to fresh trades dominate, except for waters near and S of
the Cabo Verde Islands, where gentle and variable winds prevail.
Seas S of 23N are 4 to 7 ft, highest just E of the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak Bermuda High will maintain
a weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area through Thu. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into Fri night, occurring with and behind a tropical wave
moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high pressure
ridge will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs
moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. One of
these troughs will likely produce fresh SW winds across the
northern waters over the weekend.

$$ KRV
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