[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from just southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to 15
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N
between 21W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southwestward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 01N to 09N between 41W and 46W.

A vigorous eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from just
south of the Dominican Republic southward into northwestern
Venezuela. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from northern
Venezuela northward to Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near
the Mauritania-Senegal border and curves southwestward to
11N27W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough
from 08N to 12N between Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 17W. An
ITCZ continues from 11N27W across 10N37W to 07N42W, then resumes
from 06N46W to near the French Guiana-Brazil border at 05N52W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen up to 150
nm along either side of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 10N is
causing isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near
northwestern Colombia and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the west-central Gulf. The northern tip
of a tropical wave over southern Mexico and the East Pacific is
causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the east-central Gulf is
dominating much of the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 2 ft are present at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits. Moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE return flow and 2
to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough currently at the west-
central Gulf will move across the northwestern Gulf on Wed,
bringing fresh SE winds along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula into Wed night as a
diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, the high
will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing isolated thunderstorms near
southern Cuba and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections above for additional weather in the
basin. Fresh to strong ENE to ESE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
evident near a tropical wave at the central basin. Moderate to
fresh ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the eastern basin.
Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6
ft are noted for the southwestern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail for elsewhere in the basin, including waters near Panama.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will
move west across the central Caribbean through Wed, and across
the western Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across the central
Caribbean, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Looking
ahead, another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean by
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge near
Hispaniola and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Hence, the lack of
tropical wave activity in the central Atlantic. Hazy conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this area
for the next couple of days.

An upper-level low south of Bermuda near 27N65W is producing
widely scattered moderate convection from 23N to 29N between 64W
and 75W. A surface trough curves northeastward from a 1018 mb low
southeast of Bermuda at 29N61W to beyond 31N at 54W. Scattered
showers exist near these features north of 28N between 47W and
63W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge curves southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High
across 31N45W to a modest 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N66W. These
features are supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft north of 25N between 25W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE
trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident north of 19N between the
Africa coast and 25W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NW to NE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft
are noted from 13N to 19N between the central Africa coast and
30W. For the tropical Atlantic, ENE to SE moderate to fresh
trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from the Equator to 25N/19N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and
monsoonal westerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the modest Bermuda High will
maintain a weak pressure gradient and allow light to gentle winds
across most of the area north of 22N through late week. South of
22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Thu night,
occurring behind a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean.
Looking ahead, the Bermuda High will shift southward Sat, ahead
of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and
Bermuda through Sun.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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