[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located along 24.5W from S
of the Cabo Verde Islands to 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N and E of
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located along 41W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 50 nm of the axis south of 08N.

A vigorous tropical wave is located along 68W, extending just S
of Puerto Rico into Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This
wave is producing scattered moderate locally strong convection
across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the offshore waters in the
eastern Carribbean and seas 6-9 ft. Recent scatterometer imagery
shows fresh to strong winds S of Puerto Rico and Dominican
Republic.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is currently transitioning into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. This wave is located along 88W from
19N into Honduras and Nicaragua. This wave is moving W at around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of
Honduras, in addition to offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 16N16W to 11N24W. The ITCZ extends from 11N25W to 08N41W to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N
between 23W and 48W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 11N is
causing isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near
northwestern Colombia and offshore Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
pressure center offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating much
of the basin, with the ridging leading to light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and seas of less than 2 ft in the eastern Gulf
and Florida Straits. For the western Gulf, outside of convection,
gentle to moderate mainly SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, a trough over the west-central Gulf will move
across the northwest Gulf through Wed, followed by fresh to
locally strong SE winds as well as scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula through Wed as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure
will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for convection and seas in the Caribbean. For the remainder
of the basin, diurnally induced thunderstorms are impacting the
Greater Antilles and their adjacent waters. Mainly moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. The
exceptions are S of 10N in the SW basin and in the Lee of Cuba,
where winds are gentle and seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will
move west across the central Caribbean through mid week, and
across the western Caribbean through late Fri. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across
the central Caribbean, along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge east of
Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Hence, the
lack of tropical wave activity in the central Atlantic. Hazy
conditions with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within
this area for the next couple of days.

An upper level trough extends NE from the Dominican Republic to E
of Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen in association with this feature as it interacts with the
tropical wave in the vicinity, from 19N to 25N between 65W and
70W. Two weak surface troughs are located in the northern Bahamas
and northeast of the Bahamas along 62W with a weak 1017 mb low
along it near 29N62W. Each of these troughs are producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. For additional areas of
convection in the Atlantic Ocean, please refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above.

High pressure of 1030 mb centered E of Bermuda is dominating much
of the subtropical Atlantic. This is leading to light to gentle
winds for all areas N of 23N, except in the far eastern Atlantic
where moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in and near
the Canary Islands. Seas for areas N of 23N are 3 to 4 ft, with 2
ft or less seas occurring in and near the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida. To the S of 23N and W of 30W, moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted. Gentle to moderate NE winds
prevail E of 30W with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to light gentle winds across most
of the area into late week. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds
will prevail into Thu night, occurring with and behind a tropical
wave moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high
pressure will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs
moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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