[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged off the African
coast overnight and now has an axis along 19W, extending southward
from 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N
between 15W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 13N southward,
and moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is found from 08N to 12N between 43W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from just south of
the Virgin Islands southward into central Venezuela, and moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
about 90 nm of the Venezuelan coast.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, mainly over
Central America emerging into the eastern Pacific Ocean, but
extending northward off the north coast of Honduras to about 18N.
This wave is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the Gulf of Honduras and near the Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 08N30W then continues
westward to 06N41W. An ITCZ has formed west of the trough,
extending from 06N41W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 11N, E of 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convection associated with a diurnal trough in the eastern Bay of
Campeche has dissipated. Similar convection in the central Gulf
and offshore the Florida Panhandle has also dissipated. A 1016 mb
high pressure center in the NE Gulf is dominating the basin's
weather, bringing mainly gentle SE winds and seas less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through early
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops
and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are
expected to become fresh starting Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the western Caribbean Sea is primarily associated
with a tropical wave moving into Central America, described in the
Special Features section above. Showers and thunderstorms are
being enhanced due to the waves interaction with a deep later
trough in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere mainly dry conditions
prevail. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north
and low pressure centered along the Colombian coast is leading to
fresh to locally strong winds across the Central Caribbean, with
seas of 7 to 9 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh trades and seas
of 5 to 7 ft dominate. For the NW basin, light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail, with areas S of 12N in the SW basin
experiencing light winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue
night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central waters decrease some tonight, then increase and expand in
coverage Mon night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1024 mb high
near 30N43W to N and E of the Bahamas. A deep layer trough extends
from SE of Bermuda to just N of the Turks and Caicos. This feature
is inducing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 29N between
62W and 69W. A second cluster of moderate convection is N of 26N
between 45W and 58W. The remainder of convection in the basin is
being generated by tropical waves and the monsoon trough, all
described in the sections above.

For areas N of 23N, generally gentle winds prevail. There is some
moderate S winds to the E of the aforementioned trough, between
45W and 60W. Seas in this region are 3 to 6 ft. Also, E of 35W,
moderate to fresh NE trades are leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly trades
dominate with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will lead
to mainly gentle winds across the area for the first part of the
week. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting
Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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