[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, from 06N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N east of 18W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 08N to 10N between 49W and 53W. Scattered
showers are near the northern terminus of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W, from 17N southward over
central Venezuela, moving west at 10-15 kt.

A tropical wave is along 87W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacifc. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection, enhanced by the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough, exists in the SW Caribbean, from the coast of
Panama north to 15N between the coast of Colombia and the coast of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 08N26W then continues
westward to 06N32W. An ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 09N47W.
Scattered showers are near both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails in the Gulf of Mexico, with light and
variable winds and seas of 1-3 ft. Recent altimiter data from
Sentinel-6A nicely captures the calm seas. Weak surface troughs
are in the central Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through early
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of
90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops
and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are
expected to become fresh starting Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical
waves and convection.

Compared to 1800 UTC yesterday, a weaker subtropical ridge over
the W Atlantic has allowed winds and seas to slightly diminish.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the central
Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades are
detected by scatterometer in the E and SW Caribbean, with 4-6 ft
seas. Light to gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean, with seas of
2-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue
night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central waters decrease some tonight, then increase and expand in
coverage Mon night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface troughs are producing an area of scattered
moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 54W and 67W. 1025 mb
high pressure is centered near 30N45W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are across the basin north of 20N, with seas of
4-6 ft. South of 20N, trades are mainly moderate with seas of 4-7
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will lead
to mainly gentle winds across the area for the first part of the
week. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting
Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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