[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward,
and moving westward around 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found from 08N to 12N between 43W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 16N southward
into northeast Venezuela, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the ABC Islands and over
northeast Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from the northern
Honduras coast southward, parallel to the Nicaragua coast through
Costa Rica into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras and near the Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 09N30W then continues
westward to 06N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
near and south of the trough from 03N to 11N between the Guinea-
Sierra Leone coast and 36W. There is no ITCZ present based on the
latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms at
the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Two more surface troughs are
producing similar conditions at the central Gulf and near the
Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high over the northeastern
Gulf continues to dominate much of the region. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident at the northeastern and
east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE return flow and 2 to
4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1016 mb high and related ridging will
prevail through early next week, supporting mainly gentle to
moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east
of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight and again
Sun night as the diurnal trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula are expected to
become fresh starting Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends east-northeastward from an upper low
over the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan Channel and western
Cuba. Coupling with convergent trade winds, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present near the Cayman Islands, eastern
and central Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section at the
beginning for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight
pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near the southeast
Bahamas and Colombian low are causing fresh to strong easterly
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin, north of
Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft exist at the northwestern and
southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 4 to 6
ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern basin will increase to between fresh and strong Tue night
into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
basin should decrease Sun night but increase again and expand in
areal coverage Mon night into Tue night. Gentle to moderate trades
will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1025 mb high
near 30N43W to near the central Bahamas. An upper-level trough
reaches northeastward from western Cuba across the central Bahamas
to north of Bermuda. Divergent flow related to this feature is
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
Atlantic Ridge axis, over the central Bahamas, and farther
northeast from 22N to 30N between 54W and 73W. At the central
Atlantic, a pronounced upper-level low near 36N40W is generating
widely scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 38W and
50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted
southeast of Bermuda, north of 28N between 53W and 60W. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas dominate north of 24N
between 35W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present north of 18N between the Africa
coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh ENE to
E trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 08N to 24N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate NNE to NE trades with seas of 4 to 7 ft exist from 10N to
18N between 20W and 35W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal
westerly winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending south of
Bermuda will lift north of 31N tonight. From tonight through Sun,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W, and light to
gentle winds are expected elsewhere. South of 22N, winds will
increase to between moderate and fresh starting Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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