[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 13N southward,
and moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from from 08N to 11N between 43W and 45W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is over the Leeward and Windward Islands
along 62W, from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 05N to 17N, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt into Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of
Panama north to 12N between 75W and 81W, and also from 13N to 16N
between 82W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, then extends southwestward to 08N30W then westward to
05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 0810N
between 27W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure is centered in the northeast Gulf, just
offshore the Florida Panhandle. Weak surface troughs are analyzed
in the Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Channel.
Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into early
next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of
90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula
are expected to become fresh Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical
waves and convection.

Fresh to strong trades continue in the central Caribbean, as
observed by scatterometer this morning. As a result, elevated seas
of 6-9 ft persist in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean
with 4-6 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle
trades prevail with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue
night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters
will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level low is centered just west of Bermuda, with a
trough extending to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active over a wide swath reaching from the
southern Bahamas to east of the Bermuda. A 1014 mb surface low is
centered in this area east of Bermuda, near 33N62W, with a
trough reaching to 26N67W. 1024 mb surface high pressure is
centered near 29N40W. This pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N and west of 35W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of the 20N and south
of the ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are noted north of 20N and east of 35W, with gentle
breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 20N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends southward
into the area to about 27N66W. This trough will lift N of the area
by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sun
east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds
will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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