[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 13N southward,
and moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 07N between 43W and 50W, and from 09N to 11N between
38W and 45W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is just west of Barbados along 60W,
from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave passage
was captured well on the 1200 UTC Barbados Upper Air Sounding.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is alon 82W from 05N to 17N, and moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 75W and 81W, and
also from 12N to 15N west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N31W
to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N
between 22W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure is centered in the NE Gulf waters, just
offshore the Florida Panhandle. Weak surface troughs are analyzed
in the Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Channel.
Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail into early next
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula
are expected to become fresh Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical
waves and convection.

Fresh to strong trades continue in the central Caribbean, as
observed by scatterometer this morning. As a result, elevated seas
of 6-9 ft persist in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean
with 4-6 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle
trades prevail with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue
night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters
will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstorms are impacting the Bahamas and S
Florida, in the vicinity of a surface trough extending to the NE
from Miami. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of
another surface trough, that extends from 31N63W to 27N67W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 28N44W. Trades are moderate to locally
fresh across the basin east of 60W, with 4-7 ft seas. West of
60W, winds are light and variable with 2-4 ft seas. In the far NE
waters, strong to near gale force gap winds are observed on
scatterometer between the Canary Islands, with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently S of
Bermuda will lift N of the area by tonight, while the trough
further W will dissipate. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of
22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night.
This trough will lift N of the area by tonight. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail through Sun east of 65W with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate
to fresh starting Sun night.

$$
Mahoney
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