[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 13N southward,
and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 09N between 35W and 39W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands
near 60W from 15N southward to Guyana Venezuela border, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near near Barbados, the southern Windward Islands, and over
Trinidad and Tobago.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from southwest of
Jamaica southward through central Panama, and moving westward at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near Providencia and
Andrea, and near the Panama coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N31W
to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
trough from 08N to 13N between the Guinea Bissau/Guinea coast and
22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N to 10N
between 25W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convection associated with a diurnal surface trough in the eastern
Bay of Campeche has dissipated early this morning. Another weak
surface trough that had extended from the Atlantic SW across
Florida and into the Florida Straits has also dissipated.
A broad surface ridge stretching southwestward from northern
Florida to the western Gulf continues to dominate the region.
Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident at the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle mainly SE winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into early next
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula
are expected to become fresh Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection previously associated with an upper level trough across
the NW Caribbean has dissipated early this morning. The remaining
convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves,
depicted in the Tropical Waves section above. Fresh to strong
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the central basin. Mainly
fresh trades dominate the eastern basin and the Gulf of Honduras,
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the remainder of the Caribbean, light
to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue
night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters
will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough extends from near 31N68W to just offshore
Cuba. This trough is leading to scattered moderate convection
between 21N and 27N, in the vicinity of and just E of the Bahamas.
Another trough extending from E of Bermuda to near 27N65W is
inducing scattered moderate convection N of 27N between 60W and
65W. The remaining convection in the tropical Atlantic is
associated with tropical waves and the monsoon trough, detailed in
the respective sections above.

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 32N32W extends W and SW
toward the Greater Antilles and is dominating much of the
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
found east of the surface trough that extends S of Bermuda.
Otherwise, for areas W of 60W as well as areas to the E, N of 25N,
winds are mainly light to gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft. to the S
of 25N and E of 60W, moderate to fresh trades dominate with seas
of 7 to 9 ft. In the far E Atlantic in the vicinity fo the Canary
Islands, fresh to locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 7 to
10 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 45W, The surface trough currently S of
Bermuda will lift N of the area by tonight, while the trough
further W will dissipate. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of
22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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