[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241855 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 24 2023

Corrected for date and time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong low pressure center and
its accompanying frontal boundary are moving through south Texas
and the northern sections of Mexico, toward the NW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. The related cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico from later this afternoon through Thursday. Near
gale to gale-force southerly winds, and sea heights building
from 10 feet to 14 feet, are expected in advance of the front in
the NW and the north central Gulf today and tonight. Sustained
wind speeds that range from 25 knots to 40 knots, with gusts
reaching 50 knots, are expected from late this afternoon through
tonight, within 60 nm of the coast from SE Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle. Near-gale to gale-force northwest
winds are forecast over the NW Gulf, behind the front. Gale-
force winds also are likely offshore Tampico tonight, and
offshore Veracruz from tonight into Wednesday in the wake of the
front, with sea heights close to 12 feet. The wind speeds and
the sea heights then will subside gradually throughout the area
by the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast
area near 30N32W, and it continues to 26N31W 20N40W 19N46W
20N53W. A shear line is along 20N53W 22N62W. The main 1006 mb
low pressure center, that is near 30N36W, will move to 26N38W at
1007 mb, during the next 24 hours. Associated gale-force winds
already have moved into the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front
westward and northwestward. The sea heights have been peaking
near 20 feet, and those heights will continue for the next 24
hours or so. The wind speeds will diminish to less than gale-
force by late tonight, after midnight. Large and dangerous seas
will continue to propagate through the forecast waters into the
late parts of this week.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure that is to the north
of the Caribbean Sea, combined with comparatively lower surface
pressures that are in Colombian and Panama, will support pulsing
winds to gale-force in the south central Caribbean Sea during
the next several days, mainly at night until around sunrise each
morning. The sea heights will build to close to 13 feet during
the period of the gale-force winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information about all the warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N14W 04N18W 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from
02N21W, to the Equator along 25W, to 01N31W, to the Equator
along 35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward from 33W eastward. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
Storm Warning that is in the Gulf of Mexico.

A weakening stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida
to the offshore waters of the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A warm front continues from there, northwestward to
the middle Texas Gulf coast. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the northeast of the frontal
boundary. Moderate to fresh E winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 5 feet, are in the areas of the anticyclonic wind
flow. Strong SE winds have developed in the NW and the west
central Gulf, with 9 foot sea heights. Sea heights of 5-7 feet
are in the central Gulf, and 6-9 foot sea heights are in the
western Gulf.

A weakening stationary front extends from the NW coast of Cuba to
just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is expected to
dissipate by early this afternoon. High pressure centered over
the SE U.S.A. will slide eastward through late today as a low
pressure system develops in eastern Texas, and quickly tracks
east-northeastward across the southern U.S. while deepening. The
low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico late
this afternoon through Thu. Near gale-force to gale-force
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front in the NW and
north central Gulf today and tonight, and near gale-force
northwest winds are expected over the NW Gulf this evening. Gale-
force winds are expected offshore Tampico late tonight, and
offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. A line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely to precede the
front. Winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh
southerly return flow will begin to set-up in the far western
Gulf starting Sat in response to the next cold front that will
be approaching the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will
surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of
Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the Gale-force wind warning that was issued for the south
central Caribbean Sea, off the coast of northern Colombia.

Strong trade winds are in the central Caribbean Sea to the
south of 16.5N between 67W-79W, with fresh trades elsewhere east
of 81W and south of 18N. Moderate winds are elsewhere. The
altimeter data have been showing that seas of 10-11 ft have
been from 12N-14N between 77W-78W. It is likely that the sea
heights may be as high as 12 feet off the coast of Colombia.
The sea heights of 8 feet or higher are in the strong
wind area of the central Caribbean Sea. Seas of 5-7 ft are
elsewhere, except for 4-6 ft in the NW basin.

Strong trade winds will continue over the south central Caribbean
Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal
gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
during the majority of the forecast period. Strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold front will approach
the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern and north
central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and
dissipate. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the wake of
the front will prevail in the northwest and north central
Caribbean Sea through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the Gale-force wind Warning, that was issued for the waters of
the central Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N64W, to the Bahamas near 25N76W.
The front becomes stationary at 25N76W, and it continues through
the Straits of Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds are on either side of the front, mainly north of
29N between 60W-70W along with seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh N winds
are elsewhere NW of the front. A surface ridge passes through
31N52W 26N60W to 22N70W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are under the ridge west of
53W, locally fresh offshore northern Hispaniola. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward
within 210 nm to the east of the cold front. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere within 60 nm on either side of the cold front and
the shear line.

North of 20N between 24W-52W, the waters are dominated by the
gale-force low pressure center that is described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are south of 20N
and west of 40W. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas
in mixed NE and NW swell prevail elsewhere, except for the area
that is between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco,
where strong NNE winds and 8-9 ft seas prevail.

A cold front extends from near 31N64W to 25N75W, then becomes a
stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong
winds are on both sides of the front, mainly north of 29N. This
front is expected to reach from near 31N60W to 26N70W and
stationary to east-central Cuba by early this afternoon. The
front will shift east of the forecast waters on Wed. Fresh to
strong northwest to north winds behind the front will diminish
by this afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly flow develops Wed
over the northwest waters ahead of a strong cold front that will
move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed evening. This front
is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to
the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches
from near 31N69W to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri, and from
near 31N64W to 27N69W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by
late Sat. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast
to east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the
stationary front.

$$
MT/JA
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