[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: Strengthening low pressure centered
over SE Texas has a cold front extending SW just offshore the
Texas coast. This front will move through across the Gulf through
Thu. Southerly gales are already ongoing ahead of this front
within about 90 nm of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, with
gales developing quickly behind the front along the Texas coast.
Seas of 10 to 14 ft exist near the area of gales. Winds on both
sides of the front will progress at it moves reaching speeds of 30
to 40 kt. Frequent gusts to 50 kts are expected into Wed morning
within 60 nm of the northern Gulf coast, from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle.  Near-gale to gale-force northwest winds are
forecast over the NW Gulf, behind the front. Gale- force winds
also are likely offshore Tampico tonight, and offshore Veracruz
from tonight into Wednesday in the wake of the front, with sea
heights close to 12 feet. The wind speeds and the sea heights then
will subside gradually throughout the area by the end of the
week. NW Gales will diminish in the NW Gulf this evening, but will
develop offshore Tampico and eventually offshore Veracruz tonight
into Wed as the front surges south. Conditions will gradually
improve Wed and Wed night as the front moves SE of the basin and
high pressure settles in.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure centered near
30N37W has an arching cold front that extends into our area near
31N34W and continues to 23N35W to 19N42W to 19N52W. Behind the
front and to the SW of the low, NW gales are ongoing, N of 27N
between 37W and 43W. A broad area of strong winds exists for all
areas behind the cold front, extending W of 50W. Seas are above 12
ft in the area of strong winds, with heights as much as 19 ft
where gales are occurring. Overnight, winds will fall below gale
force as the low gradually weakens, but large and dangerous seas
will prevail in the vicinity through late week.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure that is to the north
of the Caribbean Sea combined with comparatively lower surface
pressures that are in Colombia and Panama will support pulsing
winds to gale-force in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
next several days, mainly at night until around sunrise each
morning. The sea heights will build to close to 13 feet during the
period of the gale-force winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information about all the warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W to 05N16W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W
to the Equator along 25W to 35W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 10N and E of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
Storm Warning that is in the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak stationary front is dissipating from the Straits of Florida
to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. A warm front extends northward
from the western point of the stationary front to the Louisiana
coast. Generally fresh southeast winds dominate the basin outside
of the areas discussed in the Storm Warning section above, but
locally strong winds are occurring offshore Tampico and Veracruz,
Mexico, as well as N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 6 to 8 ft,
except 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf. Scattered convection is noted
within 60 nm of the Louisiana coast as well as along the cold
front that is moving off the Texas coast .

For the forecast, the warm front will lift north- northeastward
through late tonight as low pressure over eastern Texas begins to
track northeastward. As the low begins to accelerate
northeastward, it will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico through Thu. A Gale Warning is in effect for some of the
zones of the Gulf. Near gale- force to gale-force southerly winds
have developed over the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf. Gale-force
winds are expected offshore Tampico late tonight, and offshore
Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. A line of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty winds, is
likely to precede the front. Winds and seas will gradually improve
by Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will begin to set-
up in the far western Gulf starting Sat in response to the next
cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong
east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the
Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat
night. These conditions will improve late on Sun into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about the Gale-force wind warning that was issued for the south
central Caribbean Sea off the coast of northern Colombia. Strong
trade winds are in the central Caribbean Sea to the south of 16.5N
between 67W-79W, with fresh trades elsewhere east of 81W and
south of 18N. Moderate winds are elsewhere, except fresh to
strong winds have developed in and east of the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas through the south-central and SW basin are 8 to 11 ft, with 5
to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection has
developed late this afternoon near the coasts of Panama and Costa
Rica, otherwise dry conditions prevail.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south- central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near
gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the
coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period.
Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the
northwestern and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early
Fri, then stall and dissipate. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the wake of the front will prevail in the northwest and
north-central Caribbean through Sun, then diminish Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the Gale-force wind Warning that was issued for the waters of the
central Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31n50w to the central Bahamas, where it
becomes as stationary front that continues to the Florida Straits.
Fresh winds are on both sides of the front, with seas of 7 to 10
ft N of 27N between 40W and 65W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Ahead of
the front, weak surface ridging centered around new is creating
gentle to moderate winds and seas of less than 6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted N of 25N within 120 nm E of the cold
front.

North of 20N between 24W-52W, the waters are dominated by the
gale-force low pressure center that is described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are south of 20N
and west of 40W. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas
in mixed NE and NW swell prevail elsewhere, except for the area
that is between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco,
where strong NNE winds and 8-9 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N59W
to 27N69W and to 24N74W, then becomes a stationary front to the
Straits of Florida. Fresh winds are on both sides of the front,
mainly north of 29N. The front will reach from near 29N55W to
27N69W and continue as a stationary front to near the central
Bahamas by late tonight. The front will shift east of 55W Wed
morning. Fresh to strong southerly flow develops Wed over the
northwest waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move off
the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed evening. This front is expected
to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W
to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N64W to
27N69W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by late Sat. A line
of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with possible strong gusty
winds, will precede the front. A tight gradient will create fresh
to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within about
180 nm north of the stationary front through early Sun. Conditions
improve late on Sun into Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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