[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N18W and 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from
01N20W, crossing the Equator along 21W, to 02S30W, 03S36W,
crossing the Equator along 43W, 01N44W 01N50W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N76W, to the Florida coast along
81W rom 28N to 29N, to 26N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
is stationary from 26N85W to 26N93W, to 25N96W. A first surface
trough curves from 25N87W to 23N91W, to the easternmost parts of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A second surface
trough is along a SE-to-NW orientation, from the central
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to
the coastal waters of SE Texas. oderate to fresh NE to E winds
are to the north of the stationary front from 90W westward.
Gentle to moderate winds are from 90W eastward, and from the
stationary front southward from 90W westward. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 90W eastward, and from the
stationary front southward from 90W westward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 6 feet from the stationary front northward
from 90W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 24N to 27N between 83W and 90W.
Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front stretches from Tampa Bay, Florida to 26N84W, then
becomes stationary to 25N96W. Fresh to strong winds are in the
NW Gulf with moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across
the rest of the northern Gulf. The whole front will stall today.
Low pressure will form along the front in the western Gulf by
tonight and move northward. Strong NW winds and rough seas are
expected through Sat in the northern and western Gulf waters as
the low pressure and associated frontal boundary meanders in
these areas. The cold front then will push eastward on Sun
across the Gulf with fresh to strong winds following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves through 22N64W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the Mona Passage, to 14N67W in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N southward between
60W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, according to the
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, for the period
that ended at 20/1200 UTC, was: 0.24 in Trinidad, 0.07 in
St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.06 in Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in
Curacao.

Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are in the eastern two-thirds of
the Caribbean Sea. Some strong winds are within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Gentle to moderate winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Light easterly
breezes are within 180 nm to the south of Cuba from 80W
westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south central
Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia, through early
next week. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to the
Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N76W, to the Florida coast along
81W from 28N to 29N, to 26N85W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 150 nm to the
southeast of the front, mainly between the Bahamas and the front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is near 27N58W, to 24N70W, through the Bahamas, and into the
Straits of Florida.

A surface trough curves through 22N64W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the Mona Passage, to 14N67W in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N southward between
60W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights have been ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet from
the Madeira Archipelago eastward. Strong to near gale-force NE
winds are from 24N northward from 22W eastward. Fresh to strong
NE winds are from 03N to 24N from 60W eastward. The sea heights
have been ranging from 7 feet to 11 feet from 10N northward
between 20W and 30W. The sea heights have been ranging from
5 feet to 8 feet between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean between 50W and 70W. The sea heights have been
ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and the cold front and
Florida. SW strong winds, and faster, are from 30N northward
between 60W and the cold front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are
from 28N northward between 60W and the cold front. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are from 28N to the north and northwest of the
cold front. Gentle breezes or slower winds are elsewhere in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N46W to 23N53W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the cold
front.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 31N43W 27N42W 19N43W
09N46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough from
22N northward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from
09N northward between 40W and 50W.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 38N23W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward from the 31N43W
09N46W surface trough eastward.

High pressure will continue to build across the area and will
center between Puerto Rico and Bermuda today. A cold front
moving off the Florida coast is bringing moderate to fresh winds
behind it and fresh to strong winds ahead of it. These
conditions along with moderate to rough seas can also be
expected with this front as it propagates eastward through the
weekend and staying N of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds
will develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold
front expected to push off Sun night into Mon morning.

$$
mt/ar
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