[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Thursday morning, reaching near Tampa Bay,
Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. High pressure
building over the western Gulf will support gale force NW-N winds
off Veracruz behind the front Fri into early on Fri, with fresh
to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Seas will build to 8-12 ft
off Veracruz and 4-7 ft elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas
will diminish from west to east Fri night into Sat as the front
moves southeast of the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N14W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues westward to 04N30W and to
01N47W northeast of the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 14W and 37W, and from 03N to 07N between 42W and
51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning for the SW portion of the basin off Veracruz,
Mexico.

High pressure over the Gulf, anchored by a 1022 mb high offshore
SW Florida near 26.5N83.5W, continues to be the main feature
influencing the wind and weather regime across the Gulf, keeping
dry and stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient associated
with the high pressure is allowing for moderate fresh S-SW winds
in the NW basin, where recent buoy observations are recording 3-5
ft seas. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the
NE Gulf, shifting to more easterly return flow south of 25N.
Mainly moderate SE winds are noted in the SW Gulf. Seas are 3 ft
or less outside of the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf waters will shift
toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of
Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected
ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and
rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front Fri into
early on Fri night, with fresh to strong northerly winds
elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east into
Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to
strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the
western Gulf on Sun along with building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure northwest of the basin over the SE Gulf of Mexico
combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia results in a
pressure gradient that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
across the western half of the Caribbean. Moderate NE-E winds are
found in the eastern half of the basin, except E-SE east of 65W.
Seas are 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. Fairly dry and tranquil conditions prevail, except just
offshore Panama, where the far eastern extension of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong
winds are forecast across the south-central Caribbean tonight
through Fri night as high pressure N of the area strengthens a
little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night
followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will
reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon,
and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night
into Sun. The front could reach Puerto Rico by Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from the north-central Atlantic
southwestward to 27N55W where it transitions to dissipating to
23N62W, with a trough from there to near the Mona Passage.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 27N within 120 nm ahead of
the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
within 120 nm either side of these features under convergent
southerly flow. A cold front extends from northwest of Bermuda to
31N74W and continues as stationary to the South Carolina Low
Country. A trough is southeast of this front extending from 31N73W
to near the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are
noted north of 30N between 65W and 75W near the front. Otherwise,
a weak ridge extends between all of these features, extending from
the SE Gulf of Mexico to across the central Bahamas to 31N57W.
Mainly light to gentle winds are under the ridge elsewhere west of
the stationary front, locally moderate from the southeast Bahamas
to the Windward Passage. Seas of 3-5 ft in SE swell prevail west
of 70W, with 4-6 ft between 55W and 70W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic, east of the stationary
front, is dominated by 1036 my high pressure located between the
Azores and the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the
high and lower pressures in the deeper tropics is sustaining
moderate to fresh NE winds over this area, locally strong through
and downwind of the Canary Island passages. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft
in NE-E swell, except 7-10 ft south of 20N between 30W and 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening frontal boundary
extending from 31N50W to Dominican Republic will shift east of the
area late Thu. High pressure will follow in behind the front. A
strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early
Fri. As the front moves eastward across the forecast waters,
expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds
are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming
weekend. These winds could reach minimal gale force across the
waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12-15 ft are
expected with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas.

$$
Lewitsky
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