[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Thursday morning, reaching near Tampa Bay,
Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. High pressure
building over the western Gulf will support possible gale force
N-NE winds and rough seas off Veracruz behind the front Friday
into early on Friday night, with fresh to strong northerly winds
elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E into
Saturday as the front moves southeast of the area.  Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N15W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues westward to 05N30W and to
the 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south
of the ITCZ between 20W and 37W. A similar area of convection is
also noted from 03N to 08N between 41W and the coastline of
South America.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Force Wind Warning for the SW portion of the basin.

High pressure over the Gulf, anchored by a 1022 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend, continues to be the main feature influencing
the wind and weather regime across the Gulf, keeping dry and
stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient associated with the
high pressure is allowing for moderate fresh S-SW winds in the
NW basin, where recent buoy observations are recording 3 to 5 ft
seas.  Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the
NE Gulf, shifting to more easterly return flow south of 25N per
a recent ASCAT data pass and buoy observations. Mainly moderate
E-SE winds are noted in the SW Gulf, with locally fresh breezes
in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Seas remain below 3 ft,
except in the Bay of Campeche, seas are up to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the Gulf waters will
shift toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the
coast of Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is
expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building
seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. Gale
force winds are expected in the SW basin behind the front,
described in the special features sections above. Winds and seas
will diminish from W to E into Sat as the front moves southeast
of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is
expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with
building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather light pressure gradient is maintaining generally gentle
to moderate E-NE trade winds over the eastern and central basin
noted in a recent scatterometer pass, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.
The data pass also noted moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the
far south-central and southwestern Caribbean, as well as in the
lee of Cuba, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fairly dry and tranquil
conditions prevail, except just offshore Panama, where the far
eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoonal trough is
supporting some scattered showers.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most of the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to
strong  winds are expected at the south-central Caribbean
tonight  through Fri night as the Bermuda High strengthens a
little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri
night, followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The
front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on
Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua Sat night into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic
southwestward to 31N50W and to near 25N65W. The southern section
of this front has become stationary and is weakening. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are N of 30N and east of the front to
near 34W, with possible seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are present N of 24N and east of the front.
Convergent southerly flow is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 180 nm east of the front north of
25N. A surface trough is analyzed from the tail end of the
stationary front near 23N62W to Hispaniola near 20N69W. Isolated
showers are possible in the vicinity of this trough. Elsewhere,
high pressure behind the front is keeping light to gentle winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas in place west of 60W.

Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the Azores high and
lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining moderate to
fresh NE winds over the basin south of 30N and mainly east 50W.
Seas are 7 to 9 ft and up to 10 ft in the strongest winds,
mainly S of 10N between 30W and 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 29N55W to 20N67W early this evening and continue
to weaken as it shifts E of the area late Thu. High pressure
will  follow behind the front. A strong cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves
eastward across the forecast waters, expect increasing winds and
building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side
of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could
reach minimal gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat
into early on Sun.  Seas of 12-15 ft are expected, with the
strongest winds NE of the Bahamas.

$$
Mora
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