[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday morning. It will
reach from Tampa Bay, Florida southwestward to near Veracruz,
Mexico Fri morning. This will introduce near-gale to gale force
northerly winds off Veracruz behind the front from Fri morning
through late Fri evening. Seas will build and reach 8 to 10 ft by
early Fri morning, then higher at 10 to 12 ft early Fri afternoon.
Winds and seas will start to diminish late Fri night and early
Sat morning.

Please read the latest NWS Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas
Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 04N22W. An ITCZ
then continues westward from 04N22W through 03N30W to north of
Brazil at 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted up to 80 nm north, and 220 nm south of both features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale Warning.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high
over central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh
SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the
northwestern and south-central Gulf, near the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over central Florida will shift
into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of
Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected
ahead of the front while strong northerly winds and building seas
will follow the front. The front is forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Near- gale to
gale winds and rough seas are probable off Veracruz behind the
front Fri and Fri evening, with fresh to strong northerly winds
elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east into Sat
as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to
strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the
western Gulf on Sun along with building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high over Florida continues
to sustain a trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exit at
the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most the basin through late tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong
winds are forecast across the south-central Caribbean tonight
through Fri night as the surface ridge strengthens a little. A
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, followed
by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and
from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into
Sun. The front could reach the northeastern Caribbean Sun night
through Mon night as it weakens to a shear line.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N51W to well north of the Leeward Islands at
27N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
up to 100 nm northwest, and 60 nm southeast of this boundary.
Convergent trades ahead of a surge are triggering widely scattered
moderate convection from 01N to 05N between 43W and the northeast
Brazilian coast, and up to 160 nm offshore from the Suriname and
French Guiana coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident near the stationary front, north of 26N between 46W and
55W. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is supporting mostly gentle
winds with 4 to 7 ft seas north of 26N between 35W and 60W, and
also north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To
the south and east, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas
at 7 to 10 ft are present north of 05N between the African coast
and 35W, and also from 04N to 26N between 35W and 50W. From 06N to
26N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE
trades and with 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Gentle with locally
moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in
southerly swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will begin to shift eastward as a cold front once again starting
Thu morning, moving east of 35W by Thu night with high pressure
following its wake. A strong cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the
western Atlantic, expect increasing winds and building seas.
Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front
during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach gale force
across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of
12 to 15 ft are anticipated with the strongest winds NE of the
Bahamas.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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