[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda combined with low pressure over northern
Colombian will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale- force off the coast of Colombia during the evening and early
morning hours through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh
to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning late Sat night
as the high pressure located north of area weakens. Seas will
peak near 13 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the equator at 35W, then to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04S to 02N
between 22W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across
central Florida to the coast of Louisiana. Dense fog has formed
over Texas coastal waters. Patchy fog is evident over the coastal
waters of southwest Louisiana. Over the offshore waters in the
northwest and north central Gulf, oil and gas platforms indicate
visibility around 2 to 3 nm in fog and haze.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to locally
strong SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
between the ridge to the north and the trough that forms off the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late each day. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are evident elsewhere across the western Gulf west
of 85W, with 5 to 7 ft wave heights. Fresh E winds are observed
in the Straits of Florida with 4 to 6 ft wave heights. Elsewhere
over the eastern Gulf, gentle SE to S breezes and 2 to 4 wave
heights are evident.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will sustain gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds across the northern Gulf. The trough
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce
fresh to strong E to SE winds over the southwest Gulf nightly
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off
of the Texas and Louisiana coast on Mon. Fresh SW winds are
expected ahead of the front with only moderate or weaker winds
behind the front on Mon and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated fresh to strong NE
winds across the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong E winds
across the Gulf of Honduras. The winds are enhanced due to the
presence of 1025 mb high pressure centered north of the area off
the northern Bahamas. The satellite passes also confirmed winds
are reaching minimal gale force off the coast of Colombia,
between Barranquilla and Santa Marta. A larger area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds are noted mainly south of 15N between 70W and
80W. Wave heights are likely reaching 8 to 12 ft in this area, 7
to 9 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. A few
showers are moving quickly across the Windward Islands in the
easterly trade wind flow. No other significant weather is evident.

For the forecast, the 1025 mb high near and east of the Bahamas
will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force off the coast of Colombia during evening and early morning
hours through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong
trades is expected to diminish beginning Sun as the high pressure
weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun. Strong to near gale
E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Sun
morning. Looking ahead, long-period N swell may reach the Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean, and impact the Atlantic
exposures off the Leeward and Windward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge extends across the entire Atlantic north of
22N from the coast of northwest Africa to the Bahamas, except for
a cold front that reaches from the Azores Islands to about
25N50W. NW swell of 6 to 11 ft is likely north of the front, east
of 60W, along with moderate NE winds. Elsewhere north of 22N,
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft wave heights are evident.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are possible south of 22N along the
northern coast of Haiti and near the approaches to the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere south of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will help
maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere through Sat night. A surface trough
stretching westward across western Atlantic north of Pareto Rico
will dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will move
across the western Atlantic waters near 28N Fri night, extend from
near 31N55W to 28N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, and weaken as it
reaches from near 24N55W to 24N65W Sun morning. Strong NW to N
winds are likely on Sat across the western Atlantic waters behind
the front, with large N swell propagating southward east of 65W
though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front should arrive
over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze to near gale
conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon
night. NE swell producing large seas is expected behind this
front.

$$
Christensen
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