[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between a 1026
mb high near the northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over
northern Colombian. This will sustain fresh to strong trades
across the south-central Caribbean during the day, and near-gale
to gale trades during the night through Sat night. Seas will peak
between 11 and 13 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Sierra Leone
near Freetown, then continues southwestward to near 03N20W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present near
and south of the trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 19W. An
ITCZ extends from 03N20W through the equator at 30W, then to north
of Belem, Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from the Equator to 04N between 19W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high near Cedar Key,
Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Dense fog has formed
along the northwestern Gulf coastal waters. Patchy fog is evident
over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coastal waters. Over
the offshore waters in the northwestern and north-central Gulf,
oil and gas platforms indicate visibility 3 to 5 nm in fog.

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass suggested moderate to
fresh with locally strong SE winds at the central and easter Bay
of Campeche, and northwest and north of the coast of the Yucatan.
Seas in these areas range from 5 to 7 ft. Moderate SE winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident elsewhere across the western Gulf
west of 95W. Moderate E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are observed in
the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will sustain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the northern and southeastern Gulf
through Sun evening. A diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to locally strong E to
SE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore from
northern Yucatan nightly through Sun night. Looking ahead, a
frontal boundary across the Gulf States might cause moderate to
fresh southerly winds for the northern Gulf Mon and Mon evening,
before becoming gentle to moderate on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning.

An 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas continues to support a
NE to ESE trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy
trade- wind showers are seen south of the Dominican Republic and
Puerto Rico. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale
NE to ENE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-
central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found over the north-central basin,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are occurring at the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly
moderate ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the 1026 mb high will maintain fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days.
These winds should gradually decrease in both speed and coverage
starting Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in
the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun. Strong to near
gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through
Sun morning. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell will impact
the waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends southwestward from south of the Azores
across 31N31W to near 26N47W, then continues as a surface trough
to well north of the Virgin Islands at 24N63W. Patchy showers are
seen near and up to 80 nm south of this boundary. Farther south,
an upper-level trough near 27N36W is triggering scattered moderate
convection from 20N to 24N between 35W and 41W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Despite gentle to moderate NE to SE winds near the weak cold
front, 8 to 11 ft seas in large northerly swell are evident north
of 25N between 35W and 52W. To the west, light to gentle winds
with 3 to 5 ft seas are present near a 1026 mb high, north of 24N
between 52W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary
Islands, Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
exist north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 35W.
Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate with locally fresh NE trades
and seas at 6 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 20N between the
central African coast and 35W. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 04N to 24N/25N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 27N will
maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola through Sun
morning. A strong cold front will move across the western Atlantic
waters near 28N Fri night, extend from near 31N48W across 28N60W
to 27N67W Sat morning, and then weaken as it reaches from near
29N35W to 24N55W Sun morning. Strong NW to N winds are likely on
Sat across the western Atlantic waters north of 27N behind the
front, with large N swell propagating southward east of 65W though
Mon night. Looking ahead, another weaker cold front should arrive
over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas on Sun,
causing strong breeze to near gale conditions on both sides of the
front north of 28N through Mon night. NE swell producing large
seas is expected behind this front.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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