[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda combined with the Colombian low will help
maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the
coast of Colombia during the evening and early morning hours
through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades
is expected to diminish beginning late Sat night as the high
pressure located N of area weakens. Seas will peak near 14 ft with
the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to the equator at 33W, then to
01N50W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are
noted from 05S to 07N between 21W and 51W. Widely scattered
showers are from 01N to 06N between 09W and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned SE of Bermuda near
30N61W has a ridge that extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico
to about 94W. Fresh to locally strong return flow dominates most
of the Gulf waters W of 86W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
to fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas to 5 ft.

Dense fog advisories continue in effect along the northern gulf
coast from S Texas all the way to the Florida Big Bend. The
return moist southerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to favor the development of fog during the overnight and
morning hours along the northern Gulf states. Mariners should take
precaution navigating these waters as visibility may decrease
below 1 nm. Also, areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far
southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds
over the SW Gulf nightly through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak
cold front may emerge off of the Texas and Louisiana coast on
Mon. Fresh SW winds are expected ahead of the front with only
moderate or weaker winds behind the front on Mon and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent across most of
the Caribbean Sea waters, except in the far NW basin where
moderate E to SE winds dominate. The strongest winds are found in
the south-central Caribbean, S of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage
and in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to near gale force winds
and seas to 8 ft are ongoing. Seas in the E Caribbean are 4 to 7
ft and 8 to 10 ft in the central and SW basin.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia during evening and early
morning hours through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to
strong trades is expected to diminish beginning Sun as the high
pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in
the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to
near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the
next several days. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell may
begin impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones starting Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of two surface
ridges. The western surface ridge is anchored by a 1025 mb high
near 28N76W and a 1024 mb high near 30N61W. The ridge covering the
E Atlantic waters is anchored by a 1022 mb high near 27N29W. Over
the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N36W to 25N49W
where a shear line continues along 25N56W to 25N63W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades
north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
Sat night. A shearline moving southeastward across the NE
forecast waters will dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold
front will move across the N forecast waters Fri night, extend
from near 31N55W to 28N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, and weaken as it
reaches from near 24N55W to 24N65W Sun morning. Strong NW to N
winds are likely on Sat across the NE waters behind the front,
with large N swell propagating southward east of 65W though Mon
night. Looking ahead, another cold front should arrive over the NE
waters on Sun, causing strong breeze to near gale conditions on
both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon night. NE swell
producing large seas is expected behind this front.

$$
Ramos
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