[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

High pressure of 1028 mb located north of the area near 32N72W
combined with the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, near the coast
of Colombia through late week. Seas will peak to 13 or 14 ft
during the strongest winds. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas
near 13 ft just off the coast of Colombia.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event:

Long period NW swell combined with NE wind waves continues to
generate a large area of 12 to 13 ft seas mainly across the
tropical Atlantic between 35W and 55W. A pair of altimeter passes
confirmed the presence of these sea heights. The swell train, with
a leading edge period of 16 to 17 seconds, has reached the waters
S of 10N. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft today. Another
swell event is already propagating across the Atlantic forecast
waters in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N52W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. Seas of 12 to 18 ft in long period NW
swell are found behind the front, mainly N of 29N and E of 70W.
This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching the
Bahamas and the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Seas are forecast
to subside below 12 ft on Thu. These successive sets of NW swell
will maintain seas greater that 8 ft over most of the Atlantic
forecast waters into the weekend.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Guinea/Guinea
Bissau border near 11N15W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N20W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from the equator to 05N between 10W and 20W, and from 00N
to 03N between 20W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1028 mb high
pressure located over the western Atlantic near 32N72W. A small
area of showers and thunderstorms is over the SE Gulf near 24N86W.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted over most of the
basin based on recent scatterometer data. This low level moist
flow is supporting the development of marine fog within about 20
nm of the coast from Texas to Mississippi. A dense fog advisory is
in effect for this area until mid morning. Seas are generally 4 to
6 ft, except over the SE Gulf where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft
range due to fresh E winds across the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and a cold front moving across SE Texas will support fresh
SE to S winds across the Gulf through midday today. The cold front
will enter the Gulf waters early this afternoon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will briefly follow this front,
which will stall over the west- central Gulf on Thu while
dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu
night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan Channel by
Sat evening. Northerly gale force winds are possible near Tampico,
Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri
afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the
central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E on Sun, as high
pressure builds across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.
Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of fresh
to strong trades across the central Caribbean S of 16N, and fresh
to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage, between Jamaica
and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 9 to 13 ft
over the south-central Caribbean, 9 to 10 ft S of Hispaniola, 8 to
9 ft in the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba,
8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

Pockets of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. The tail end of a frontal boundary over the Atlantic is
producing some shower activity over eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central
Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean
through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast
of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will increase in
the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras tonight
through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly
winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in
the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead,
a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening, and
move across the NW Caribbean on Sun, extending from eastern Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras by Sun evening. Fresh to strong N winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large and long period swell from the NW is raising seas to near
18 ft across the Atlantic forecast waters. Please, read the
Special Features section for more details about these hazardous
marine conditions.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N52W, and continues
SW to near 24N63W where it becomes stationary to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. A well defined band of mainly low clouds and
possible showers is associated with the front. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds follow the front. The most recent
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds on either side
of the front N of 27N, with seas of 12 to 18 ft based on altimeter
data. Elsewhere N of the front seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail. Fresh
to strong winds are across the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas
Channel, including the approach of the Windward Passage.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence
of a 1035 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this high and lower pressures in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds S of 23N and E of 55W. Seas of 10 to 13 ft in mixed NW
swell and NE wind waves are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening
while weakening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas
of up to 18 ft follows the front. This swell event will continue
to propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and
the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds
are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward
Passage through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front
will move off NE Florida Fri night. A low pressure may develop
along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia by Sat
evening. The low will move NE dragging the cold front across the
forecast region Sat night into Sun. Strong winds and rough seas
are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N.

$$
GR
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