[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 32N71W 1029
mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, and the comparatively
lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will
continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each
night through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to
range from 9 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the
comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

A cold front passes through 31N51W to 25N60W, to 22N69W. The
front becomes stationary, from 22N69W, to the SE Bahamas near
22N75W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front from 30N
northward. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of
the rest of the frontal boundary. The sea heights have been
ranging from 7 feet to 15 feet from the frontal boundary
northward. The comparatively highest sea heights are reaching 14
feet and 15 feet from 29N to 30N between 60W and 62W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 12 feet from the coast
of South America between 40W and 60W northward. The
comparatively highest sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet
to 12 feet from 06N to 25N from 60W eastward. The sea heights
have been at least 8 feet or higher, nearly everywhere from the
frontal boundary eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 27N
southward from 55W eastward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
from 27N northward between 39W and the cold front. Fresh to
strong NE winds are from 26N southward between 66W and 76W.
Moderate to fresh winds are from 20N northward between 54W and
65W. Moderate winds or slower are from 26N northward from 64W
westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N71W. The
swell train, with a leading edge period of 16 to 17 seconds, has
reached the waters S of 10N. The forecast is for the sea heights
to subside to less than 12 feet later today. Another swell event
already is propagating through the Atlantic Ocean forecast
waters, in the wake of the frontal boundary. This swell event
will continue to propagate southward reaching the Bahamas and
the Greater Antilles from tonight into Thu. The sea heights are
forecast to subside to less than 12 feet on Thursday. These
successive sets of NW swell will maintain the sea heights to be
greater than 8 feet in most of the Atlantic Ocean forecast
waters into the weekend. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, crossing
the Equator along 30W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the
line that runs from Sierra Leone to the coast of French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains, moving toward the
NW Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the coastal plains of
Mexico, to 25N98W in Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 21N northward from 85W
westward. An Atlantic 1029 mb high pressure center is near
32N71W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds cover most of the area. IFR
and MVFR conditions are in the Texas coastal plains. Areas of
rain also are near the cold front, with the low level clouds.
MVFR conditions are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Clear skies are elsewhere in
the Florida coastal plains. The sea heights have been ranging
from 4 feet to 6 feet in most of the areas. The exception has
been sea heights that have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in
the SE Gulf, with the fresh E winds that have been in the
Straits of Florida.

Marine fog is occurring this morning within 20 nm of the
Louisiana and Texas coasts, reducing visibility to less than 1
nm in some areas. Fresh SE winds will continue today across the
eastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front enters
the western Gulf during the early afternoon. The front will
reach from the coast of Mississippi to the south central Bay of
Campeche Thu morning before weakening and dissipating Thu night.
The coastal fog should dissipate after the frontal passage.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop
ahead of and along the front this afternoon through this evening
over the NW Gulf. The line of storms will move E to the north
central Gulf during the overnight hours and into Thu morning.
Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are possible with the
storms. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly follow this
front over the west-central Gulf this afternoon into tonight. A
stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or
early Fri morning, reach from Apalachicola, FL to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan
Channel by Sat evening. Northerly gale force winds are likely
near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz,
Mexico Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist
over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over the
SW Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E on
Sun, as high pressure builds across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of
Colombia. Gale-force NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. The sea heights have been ranging
from 9 feet to 10 feet in the central one-third of the Caribbean
Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights have been ranging
from 12 feet to 13 feet near the coast of Colombia in the areas
of the gale-force wind speeds. Please, read the Special Features
section for more details.

NE mostly strong to some gale-force winds are in the central
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been
ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet in the Atlantic Ocean side of the
islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been
ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern one-third of the
area. Fresh to locally strong winds have been in the Windward
Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of
Cuba. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in
the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The
sea heights have been reaching 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras,
and they have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere.

Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind
flow, are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely
scattered passing rainshowers. The western end of the Atlantic
Ocean stationary front reaches the SE Bahamas. The comparatively
most intense precipitation with the  greatest amount of coverage
is happening from Jamaica toward the Yucatan Channel.

Strong trade winds will continue over the central Caribbean Sea,
with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through
Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of
Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of
Honduras through late this week, strongest at night. Strong
easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Looking
ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat and
move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong N
winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.

Moderate winds or slower are from 26N northward from 64W
westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N71W. The
rest of the information that is about the sea heights and the
wind speeds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N69W, where it becomes
stationary to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The front will
remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening while
weakening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas to
near 18 ft follow the front. This swell event will continue to
propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and
the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Fresh to strong trade
winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and
Windward Passage through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. A low pressure
may develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of
Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE dragging the cold
front across the forecast region Sat night into Sun night.
Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on
both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N.

$$
mt/ah
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