[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080443
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge positioned SE of the Carolinas and the
comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama will
continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia through
late this week. Seas will peak near 14 ft in the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N54W to
the coast of NE Cuba near 21N75W. Seas of 12-15 ft are found
behind the front, mainly N of 29N and E of 70W. Seas will build to
near 18 ft by early Wed morning. Swell direction is NE with a
period of 10-15 seconds. This swell event will continue to
propagate southward reaching the Greater Antilles late Wed. Seas
will subside on Thu. However, seas greater than 8 ft will dominate
most of the forecast waters into the weekend. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues to 04N16W. THe ITCZ extends from 04N16W
to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm
on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure off the Carolinas extends southwestward into the
Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are found off NW Yucatan and in
the eastern Gulf, while generally drier weather prevails elsewhere
in the basin. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and
lower pressures in the tropical waters result in fresh to strong
easterly winds off NW Cuba and northern Yucatan. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes are prevalent in the rest of the
Gulf. Seas of 4-7 ft are evident east of 88W and 3-6 ft west of
88W.

Light southerly return flow is increasing the moisture content
across the northern Gulf coast, producing favorable conditions
for the development of marine fog during the overnight hours. A
dense fog advisory is in effect from the coast of NE Texas to
Mississippi until Wed 16Z. Visibility may decrease to less an 1 nm
creating hazardous conditions for mariners.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressure associated with a cold front over SE
Texas will support fresh SE to S winds across the Gulf of Mexico
through midday Wed. The cold front over Texas will move over the
western Gulf Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will briefly follow this front, which will stall
over the west-central Gulf on Thu while dissipating. A stronger
cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from the
Florida Big Bend to Merida, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the basin
by Sat afternoon. Northerly gales are possible near Tampico,
Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri
afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the
central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf.
Winds and seas will gradually subside Sun as a high pressure ridge
moves over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of the
Colombia.

No deep convection is present across the Caribbean Sea but pockets
of shallow moisture are producing some isolated showers,
especially in the lee of Cuba. The subtropical ridge between the
Carolinas and Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds
across most of the basin. Strong to gale-force NE-E winds
continue to affect the waters off NW Colombia as detailed in the
Special Features section. Strong force winds are also found off
southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are primarily 6-12 ft in the Caribbean, with the
highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern
Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near
the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will
increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras
tonight through late this week, pulsing to strong at night.
Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on
Sat morning, and move across the NW Caribbean, extending from
eastern Cuba to Honduras by Sun evening. Fresh to strong N winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

A 1037 mb high pressure system centered north of the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of
deep convection. A cold front extends from 31N54W to the coast of
NE Cuba. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds prevail
behind the front. Seas greater than 8 ft are present behind the
frontal boundary, especially east of 75W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are present ahead of the cold front, north of 29N
and west of 47W.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics allow for fresh to locally strong easterly winds
in most of the central and eastern Atlantic waters, primarily
south of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N54W to
the SE Bahamas will extend along 22N-23N by Wed evening while
weakening. Fresh to strong winds will persist N of 28N on either
side of the front through tonight. Large N swell will propagate
across the forecast waters E of the Bahamas to 55W through late
week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the
Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage from tonight
through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move
off NE Florida Fri night with strong winds and rough seas on both
sides of the front, persisting east of Florida through the
weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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