[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge and the comparatively lower surface pressures
in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea off the coast
of Colombia, each night through late this week. Seas will range
from 9-14 ft in the highest winds. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

W Atlantic Significant Swell: A primary cold front extends from
31N57W to 22N71W and a secondary cold front extends from 31N60W to
27N73W. Seas of 12-14 ft are within an area from 31N60W along the
secondary cold front to 29N69W to 31N70W. Seas greater than 8 ft
are from 31N57W along the primary cold front to 26N70W to 31N74W.
Swell direction is NE with a period of 10-12 seconds. This swell
event will continue to propagate southwestward in the lee of the
frontal boundaries, with peak seas building to 17 ft along 31N on
Wednesday, before beginning to subside on Thursday. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W,
crossing the Equator at 23W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the ITCZ from the equator to 03N
between 26W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. The Gulf
of Mexico remains under the influence of high pressure centered
off the SE US Coast. Mainly moderate return flow prevails, with
fresh E winds noted in the Straits of Florida and within 60 nm of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin,
except 5-7 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the gradient between 1029 mb high pressure over
the coast of North Carolina and lower pressure associated with a
cold front over central Texas will support fresh SE to S winds
across the Gulf of Mexico through midday Wed. The cold front over
Texas will move over the western Gulf Wed afternoon. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will briefly follow this
front, which will stall over the west-central Gulf on Thu while
dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu
night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Merida, Mexico Fri
evening, and exit the basin by Sat afternoon. Northerly gales are
possible near Tampico, Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore
Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also
persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over
the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually subside Sun as a high
pressure ridge moves over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of the
Colombia.

In the central Caribbean, seas greater than 8 ft are south of 11N
between 72W and 82W, with peak seas in the Gale Warning area.
Fresh to strong trades prevail in the central Caribbean, Windward
Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern
Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near
the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will
increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras
late this afternoon through late this week, pulsing to strong at
night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern
Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the
Yucatan Channel on Sat morning, and move across the NW Caribbean,
extending from eastern Cuba to Honduras by Sun evening. Fresh to
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the east and central
tropical Atlantic. These sustained conditions over the past few
days have developed a large area of 8-11 ft seas described as
follows: South of 25N between 40W and 60W, swell direction is E
with a period of 8-10 seconds. South of 31N between 20W and 40W,
swell direction is NW with a period of 14-17 seconds.

Elsewhere in the far W Atlantic outside of the significant swell
event, moderate to fresh E winds are analyzed with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N57W to
25N64W to the SE Bahamas will reach from 26.5N55W to 22N70W, then
stationary to 22N74W early Wed, and from 24N55W to 22.5N60W, then
stationary to 21.5N69W early Thu. Fresh to strong winds will
persist N of 28N on either side of the front through tonight.
Large N swell will propagate across the forecast waters E of the
Bahamas to 55W through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are
expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward
Passage from late this afternoon through late week. Looking ahead,
the next cold front will move off NE Florida Fri night with
strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the front, persisting
east of Florida through the weekend.

$$
Mahoney
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