[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will sustain
gale to strong gale northerly winds with occasional gusts to storm
force off the coast of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos, Mexico through
early this evening. Rough seas of 12 to 14 ft should begin to
subside late tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, and reaches southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ
then continues westward from 03N21W through 02N33W to 04N44W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side
of both the monsoon and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from Sarasota, Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula offshore waters near 22N90W to the central Bay of
Campeche. Land observations in southern Mexico show strong gale
force winds, which extend to nearly 20N between the tail of the
front and Veracruz coastal waters. Very rough seas are present in
this region reaching 13 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas to 10 ft are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across the
Gulf through this evening. Winds and seas will begin to diminish
from west to east across the Gulf tonight into Sat, with winds
below gale force in the SW Gulf by early Sat morning. High
pressure will follow the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to
locally strong SE to S return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and
Tue, with another cold front entering the region on Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layered dry air and strong winds aloft are maintaining fair
weather conditions basin-wide. A strong ridge centered over the
Atlantic subtropical waters near 27N55W extends southward into
most of the Caribbean. This continues to support moderate to fresh
trade winds over the eastern half and and SW basin, except for
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia
offshore waters where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Seas are 5-6
ft elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate NE winds and seas to 3 ft are in the NW basin.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Pulsing
winds to minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia during the majority of the forecast period as a strong
high pressure settles N of area tonight through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W SW to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh
to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 28N.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a
ridge that is centered near 27N55W. To the NE of the center of
high pressure the tail of a stationary front extends from 31N43W
to 29N53W. Gentle to moderate winds are to the west and east of
the high with seas to 5 ft. However, winds W of 55W and N of 26N
will rapidly increase to near gale speeds this evening as the cold
front races eastward.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N59W
to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Sat morning. The southern
part of the front will stall and begin to lift N on Sun, ahead of
another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The
second cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by
Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by
late Tue.

$$
Ramos
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