[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As indicated by the latest satellite
scatterometer data, a strong cold front will sustain gale to
strong gale northerly winds with occasional gusts to storm force
off the coast of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos, Mexico through early
this evening. Rough seas of 12 to 15 ft should begin to subside
late tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near Freetown, and reaches southwestward to 03N21W. An ITCZ
then continues westward from 03N21W through 03N35W to 03N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from
01N to 05N between 10W and 18W, and up to 120 nm along either side
of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front stretches southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
area to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Scattered showers are
occurring along and up to 110 nm northwest of this feature. A
surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is causing similar
conditions off the Yucatan north coast, and at the Eastern Bay of
Campeche.

Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale northerly winds
with 7 to 11 ft seas are present across the northern and west-
central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft exist at the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S to W
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the Gulf
through this evening. NW to N gale winds and very rough seas
behind the front will persist off the coast of Veracruz and
Coatzacoalcos through this evening. Fresh to strong N winds and
moderate to rough seas behind the front will continue elsewhere
through tonight. Afterward, winds and seas will diminish from
west to east across the Gulf through Sat night as high pressure
builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to
locally strong SE to S return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1022 nm high north of Puerto Rico is supporting a trade-wind
regime for the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering
patchy showers across the northern basin, including waters near
Jamaica, Hispaniola and offshore from Nicaragua. Fresh to strong
with locally near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
present at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are are seen
at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale ENE winds will persist off
the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades are expected elsewhere through
Sat. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the
northwest Caribbean tonight and dissipate Sat. Looking ahead,
building high pressure to the north will strengthen the easterly
trades across the eastern and central Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic Sun through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front offshore from the northeastern Florida coast is
creating scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 29N between
78W and the Georgia-northeastern Florida coast. Another weakening
cold front curves southwestward from west of the Azores across
31N43W to 29N48W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N54W,
no significant weather is associated with these fronts. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale SW winds and seas of 6 to
8 ft are evident across the western Atlantic north of 27N between
55W and the Georgia- northeastern Florida coast. Otherwise, the
surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high north of Puerto Rico near
25N66W is providing light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas
north of 19N between 30W and the Bahamas/southern Florida coast.
Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted north of 08N between
northwestern/central African coast and 30W. To the west, moderate
to fresh NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 05N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle easterly and
monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge is shifting
eastward ahead of a cold front offshore of northern Florida,
allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or near-gale force
between NE Florida and Bermuda through tonight. These winds will
follow the front forecast to reach from 31N58W to southern
Florida by Sat morning. This boundary will begin lifting
northward Sun as a warm front, ahead of another cold front moving
off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will
reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to
stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Tue afternoon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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