[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently draped
across the SE Gulf of Mexico sustains gale northerly winds off
the coast of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force N winds in
the southern Bay of Campeche. Seas are peaking near 15 ft in the
SW Gulf. Winds are forecast to drop below gale early Sat morning
and below strong speeds by Sat afternoon. Seas will gradually
subside on Sat, decreasing below 8 ft late Sat night into early
Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in NW Colombia and
Panama will support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night
through early next week. Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft off
NW Colombia. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to
01N33W to 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is observed south
of 07N and between 11W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from SW Florida to NE Yucatan and there is no
deep convection near this feature. Dry continental air dominates
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the Special
Features area, fresh to strong NE-N winds prevail across the Gulf
of Mexico behind the cold front. This was confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds are found ahead of the cold front and in
the NW Gulf of Mexico, along with seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Naples, Florida
to Cancun, Mexico will continue to move across the Gulf through
this evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are behind the
front over the southwest Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front. Winds
and seas will begin to diminish from west to east across the Gulf
tonight into Sat, with winds below gale force in the southwest
Gulf by early Sat morning. High pressure will follow the front.
Looking ahead, expect fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow
across the western Gulf on Mon and Tue, with another cold front
entering the region on Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

Patches of low-level moisture ride the trade winds across the
Caribbean Sea, producing shallow, isolated showers. No deep
convection is present in the basin. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures
in NW South America result in fresh to near gale-force easterly
trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds
are found off NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, as shown
in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are
6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to locally
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-
central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
overnight tonight and possibly Sat night, with fresh winds
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to move eastward in the western Atlantic,
extending from 31N71W to SE Florida. No deep convection is noted
near the frontal boundary. Fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds are present behind the cold front, as depicted by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft
with the highest seas near 31N77W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
found ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly north of 28N and west
of 55W. Seas in the waters described are 6-12 ft, with the highest
seas occurring near 31N66W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. The ridge sustains moderate to
locally strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 23N. Seas in
these waters are 5-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring near
08N51W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from Bermuda to
Miami, Florida. Strong to near-gale force winds are on either
side of the front north of 29N. The front will stall from 29N55W
to the upper Florida Keys by late Sat, then weaken as it lifts
north as a warm front through Sun ahead of another front expected
to move off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. The second cold
front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon
afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late
Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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