[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia. This pattern will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia
tonight and Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W.
A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday
morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast Liberia near
05N09W to 05N11W. The ITCZ extends from 05N11W to 01N30W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from south of 05N and west of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from the coast of Alabama to a 1019 mb
low pressure system near 27N95W. A cold front extends from the
low center to the coast of Veracruz near 21N97W. A few showers are
evident near the frontal boundary and low pressure but deep
convection is associated with the shower activity. A weak high
pressure regime dominates the remainder of the basin. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are found behind the frontal boundary,
along with seas of 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

Light and moist return flow is expected across the Big Bend region
of Florida tonight through Thu morning, resulting in the formation
of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in effect
through Thu at 15Z for the waters across most of the Florida
panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution.

For the forecast, low pressure has developed along a frontal
boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. This system will move
toward SE Louisiana on Thu, dragging the associated cold front
across the Gulf waters. The front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by early Fri morning, and move
across the far SE Gulf and the Yucatan Channel by early Sat
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Seas are
forecast to build to 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest
winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E
across the basin Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds over
the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A 1023 mb high pressure system near the NW Bahamas continues to
dominate the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions, except for a few patches of low-level moisture. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW
South America result in fresh to strong NE-E winds in the central
Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring off NW
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas
occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds
are also found in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-5
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia
through Sat night. These winds will pulse to minimal gale force at
night through Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night
as well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
prevails. A surface trough is located offshore NE FL supporting
slightly stronger moderate breezes north of 29N.

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
Atlantic, between 45W and 65W, with the main trough axis
reaching from 27N53W to 16N60W. A tightened pressure gradient
between the trough and a ridge north of the area supports moderate
to fresh E winds north of 25N, between 30W and 45W. This results
in an area of 6-9 ft seas in NE swell north of about 23N between
34W and 47W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident south of 24N
and east of 48W. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Farther
north and east, a surface trough extends offshore Western Sahara
supporting an area of fresh to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near
the Canary Islands where seas are 6-9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 28N is
supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, with strong wind
near the entrance to the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift east through Thu
night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW
winds are likely to increase Thu night and Fri between northeast
Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front
will move into the region Fri morning, and from 31n50w to the NW
Bahamas Sat morning, then lift north of the area Sun ahead of
another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun night.

$$
DELGADO
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