[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through
Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8
feet to 10 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind
speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W.
A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday
morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to 03N20W
01N30W, to the Equator along 36W, to 02N50W along the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section for more details.

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to just off the
coast of SE Louisiana. The front becomes stationary there, to a
1018 mb low pressure center that is near 28N94W. A cold front
continues southward, from the 1018 mb low pressure center, to the
coast of Mexico near 20N96W. The front becomes stationary at
20N96W, and it continues northwestward to the Texas Big Bend.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the north and to the northwest
of the frontal boundary. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are within 125 nm of the 1018 mb low pressure center, from the NE
quadrant to the SW quadrant. Moderate easterly winds are within
120 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula between 89W and 92W.
Gentle wind speeds or slower have been elsewhere from the frontal
boundary eastward and southeastward. Strong to near gale-force
northerly winds, and sea heights that were ranging from 8 feet to
12 feet, were in the coastal waters of Mexico, from the cold
front westward, during the last 12 hours or so. The sea heights
were ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere to the north and to
the northwest of the low pressure center and the frontal boundary.

Expect a mixture of IFR and MVFR conditions from Texas to
Alabama. The comparatively worst conditions in this area are LIFR
and rain/drizzle. A mixture of LIFR and IFR is in the Florida from
the Jacksonville metropolitan area, to Perry, to Gainesville, and
westward. Some MVFR to VFR conditions are in the coastal plains
of west central Florida.

Broad anticyclonic wind flow has been covering the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet
to 4 feet, elsewhere from the frontal boundary eastward and
southeastward.

Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing
for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in
the coastal waters, from the coast of west central Florida to
Texas. The visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some
cases, and ranging from 3 miles to 5 miles or less, in the other
cases. The marine conditions will improve throughout the
afternoon of today on Wednesday. Dense fog is expected to return
during the overnight hours and morning hours, through Wednesday
night.

Low pressure in the northwestern Gulf will move to the Carolinas
through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Gulf
through late Fri. Winds to gale force and very rough seas will
follow the front over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of
Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the
remainder of the day. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through late Sat across the Gulf as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest Gulf by
late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, that has been issued for the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Any precipitation is
related to clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that
are in the trade wind flow. The 24-hour rainfall total in
inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Table, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at
02/0000 UTC, was 0.25 in Curacao.

The near gale-force to gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 79W. Strong NE winds 280 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are blowing through the
Windward Passage. in the SW corner. Gentle to moderate NE winds
are elsewhere in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for
some strong NE winds that have been in the coastal waters of the
northern half of the coast of Nicaragua. The sea heights range
from 8 feet to 11 feet from 17N southward in the central one-
third of the area, and in the SW corner. The sea heights of 11
feet have been closer to the coast of Colombia near 77W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
Sat night. These winds are pulsing to minimal gale force through
early Thu morning and again Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly
trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through Thu night as well. Moderate to fresh trades
are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 20N50W 09N47W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to
the south of the southern end of the trough between 45W and 49W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of the
rest of the surface trough.

A second surface trough is along 29N51W 24N35W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is mostly within 360
nm to the north of the trough between 30W and 45W.

A third surface trough is along 26W/27W from 23N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the third surface trough.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 27N75W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 55W
westward. Light to gentle winds, and 5 feet to 7 feet sea heights
are in the areas of the anticyclonic wind flow.

A tightened pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge
north of the area supports moderate to fresh E winds north of 25N,
between 30W and 45W. This results in an area of 6-9 ft seas in NE
swell north of about 23N between 34W and 47W. Moderate to fresh
NE-E winds are evident south of 24N and east of 48W. Seas in the
waters described are 4-7 ft. Farther north and east, a surface
trough extends offshore Western Sahara supporting an area of fresh
to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near the Canary Islands where
seas are 6-9 ft.

High pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N, with strong winds near the entrance to the Windward
Passage, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The high pressure
will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls
along 30N. SW winds will increase Thu night and Fri between
northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The
cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, reach
from Bermuda to east-central Florida Fri night, then stall from
31N55W to the northwest Bahamas and South Florida Sat. Looking
ahead, the front will lift northward Sat night ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. The second
front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon.


$$
mt/ec




...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia.
This pattern will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force
winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Seas will
peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W.
A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday
morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast Liberia near
05N09W to 05N11W. The ITCZ extends from 05N11W to 01N30W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from south of 05N and west of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from the coast of Alabama to a 1019 mb
low pressure system near 27N95W. A cold front extends from the
low center to the coast of Veracruz near 21N97W. A few showers are
evident near the frontal boundary and low pressure but deep
convection is associated with the shower activity. A weak high
pressure regime dominates the remainder of the basin. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are found behind the frontal boundary,
along with seas of 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

Light and moist return flow is expected across the Big Bend region
of Florida tonight through Thu morning, resulting in the formation
of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in effect
through Thu at 15Z for the waters across most of the Florida
panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution.

For the forecast, low pressure has developed along a frontal
boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. This system will move
toward SE Louisiana on Thu, dragging the associated cold front
across the Gulf waters. The front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by early Fri morning, and move
across the far SE Gulf and the Yucatan Channel by early Sat
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Seas are
forecast to build to 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest
winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E
across the basin Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds over
the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A 1023 mb high pressure system near the NW Bahamas continues to
dominate the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions, except for a few patches of low-level moisture. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW
South America result in fresh to strong NE-E winds in the central
Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring off NW
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas
occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds
are also found in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-5
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia
through Sat night. These winds will pulse to minimal gale force at
night through Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night
as well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
prevails. A surface trough is located offshore NE FL supporting
slightly stronger moderate breezes north of 29N.

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
Atlantic, between 45W and 65W, with the main trough axis
reaching from 27N53W to 16N60W. A tightened pressure gradient
between the trough and a ridge north of the area supports moderate
to fresh E winds north of 25N, between 30W and 45W. This results
in an area of 6-9 ft seas in NE swell north of about 23N between
34W and 47W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident south of 24N
and east of 48W. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Farther
north and east, a surface trough extends offshore Western Sahara
supporting an area of fresh to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near
the Canary Islands where seas are 6-9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 28N is
supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, with strong wind
near the entrance to the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift east through Thu
night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW
winds are likely to increase Thu night and Fri between northeast
Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front
will move into the region Fri morning, and from 31n50w to the NW
Bahamas Sat morning, then lift north of the area Sun ahead of
another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun night.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net