[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia. This pattern will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia
tonight and Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W.
A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday
morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends about 90 nm from the coast of Liberia
to near 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 04N20W to
01N30W to 00N40W to the coast of South America near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from the
equator to 04N between 20W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted offshore Brazil from 01S to 05N between 45W
and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

Low pressure has developed along what was a stationary front
over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. A cold front now extends south of
the low to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds
were noted in a recent scatterometer pass off the TX and LA
coastal waters, while fresh to strong N to NW winds are behind
the cold front offshore Mexico with 6 to 8 ft seas. A warm front
extends NE of the low to 29N90W near Port Fourchon, LA, then
continues as a cold front to near Panama City, FL. Coastal
observations continue to report dense marine fog along the
coasts of AL, MS, and LA with patchy fog offshore TX. Mariners
should continue to exercise caution. Elsewhere over the Gulf,
moderate E-SE winds are west of 90W ahead of the front, while
gentle breezes are east of 90W, with 2 to 4 ft seas over the
basin.

For the forecast, patchy coastal fog may persist in some parts
of the northern Gulf through tonight. Meanwhile, the low will
move toward SE Louisiana on Thu, dragging the cold front across
the Gulf waters. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend
to near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Seas are
forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest
winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E
across the basin Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds over
the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea,
including the Windward Passage, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. The
strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of
Colombia, where seas are up to 11 ft this morning and within 120
nm south of Hispaniola, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered off the northern Bahamas near
28N75W supports moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of
60W, with fresh winds possible near the Windward Passage
entrance where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light
to gentle flow prevails. A surface trough is located offshore NE
FL supporting slightly stronger moderate breezes north of 29N.

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
Atlantic, between 45W and 65W, with the main trough axis
reaching from 36N48W to 16N60W. A tightened pressure gradient
between the trough and a ridge north of the area supports
moderate to fresh E winds north of 25N between 30W and 42W. This
results in an area of 6 to 9 ft seas in NE swell north of about
23N between 34W and 47W. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the
far east Atl between the west coast of Africa to 25W,  south of
22N to the Cape Verde Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are elsewhere south of 15N
over the deep tropics where seas continue to be 6 to 8 ft.
Farther north and east, a surface trough extends offshore
Western Sahara supporting an area of fresh to strong SE-E winds
east of 14W near the Canary Islands where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure NE of the
Bahamas will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front
stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds will likely increase
Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of
another cold front. The cold front will move into the region
Fri, stall from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas Sat, then lift
north of the area Sun ahead of another cold front expected to
move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night.

$$
Mora
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