[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010911
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Recent ship reports confirm winds to gale
force off the coast of Colombia. The gales are the result of a
tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This
pattern will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds
off the coast of Colombia through the remainder of the morning,
and again tonight and Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 02N35W to
02S40W. An upper trough north of the ITCZ is supporting scattered
moderate convection from 00N to 03N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front persists across the northwest Gulf from near
Morgan City, Louisiana to Barra del Tordo, Tamaulipas, Mexico.
Current buoy observations and a recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front.
Seas north of the front are likely ranging from 6 ft off Texas to
near 8 ft north of Tampico, Mexico. Platforms are also reporting
visibility less than 1 nm in fog off the central Texas coast, and
dense fog advisories are in effect through the overnight hours
over coastal waters from the central Texas coast through the
waters off west- central Tampa. Fresh winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are
likely over the Straits of Florida and off the western coast of
Yucatan, where an overnight trough is in place. Gentle to
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
A few showers are possible along the stalled front, but elsewhere
no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, patchy coastal fog may persist in some parts of
the northern Gulf through tonight. Meanwhile, the stationary
front from the western Louisiana coast to near Barra del Tordo,
Mexico will remain in place into Thu, before a surge of cold air
moves south into the Gulf, pushing the front across the basin
through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds can be expected behind the
front, with gales Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish Sat across the basin as high pressure
builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft wave
heights. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure centered off the northern Bahamas near
29N75W is supporting fresh NE to E winds south of 22N, with strong
winds possible near the entrances to the Windward Passage, with 6
to 7 ft wave heights. Light to gentle breezes are evident north of
22N and west of 55W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Farther east, a trough
reaching from 10N to 25N between 50W and 55W is supporting gentle
winds, with 5 to 6 ft wave heights in northerly swell. An upper
trough reaching from the Azores Islands to 20N55W supports a few
showers and thunderstorms along a stalled boundary along 25N
between 35W and 45W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are evident in this area. Elsewhere, moderate NE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are evident, except for fresh to strong winds off the
coast of northwest Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will shift east
through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. SW winds
are likely to increase Thu night and Fri between northeast
Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. Looking ahead, the
cold front will move into the region Fri, stall from 31N55W to
the northern Bahamas Sat, then lift north of the area Sun ahead of
another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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